Parameters | Base-case | Reference |
---|---|---|
Primary probability | ||
CD4 counts at the last testing of PMTCT period | Surveillance data | |
Percentage of pregnant women with CD4 count≧350 cells/μl(%) | 75.91 | |
Percentage of pregnant women with CD4 count 200–350 cells/μl(%) | 17.21 | |
Percentage of pregnant women with CD4 count< 200 cells/μl(%) | 6.88 | |
Death probability | ||
Monthly probability death of off ART, CD4 200-350cells/μl (α11) | 0.00272 | |
Relative probability death per month off ART, CD4 > 350 vs. 200-350cells/μl (α21:α11) | 0.206(0.206–0.258) | |
Relative probability death per month off ART, CD4 < 200 vs. 200-350cells/μl (α31:α11) | 9.08(3.45–9.08) | |
Relative probability death on vs. off ART for the same CD4 counts (αi2:αi1) | 0.19(0.14–0.25) | |
Transmission probability | [23] | |
Off ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 > 350 to 200–350 cells/μl | 0.0257(0.0119–0.0289) | |
Off ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 200–350 to < 200 cells/μl | 0.0188(0.0186–0.0274) | |
On ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 200–350 to > 350 cells/μl | 0.0569(0.0247–0.0888) | |
On ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 < 200 to 200–350 cells/μl | 0.0293(0.0274–0.0683) | |
Per vaginal sex act probability of HIV transmission from women to man | [25] | |
CD4 > 350cells/μl | 0.02(0.01–0.04) | |
CD4 200-350cells/μl | 0.03(0.01–0.04) | |
CD4 < 200cells/μl | 0.05(0.03–0.06) | |
% efficacy of ART in reducing HIV transmission | 92(26–99) | [23] |
QALY weight HIV-positive on ART or CD4 > 350cells/μl | 0.947 | [23] |
QALY weight HIV-positive CD4 200–350 cells/μl | 0.799 | [23] |
QALY weight HIV-positive CD4 < 200 cells/μl | 0.453 | [23] |
Sex acts per month with regular partner | 1–2 | [21] |
Cost parameters | ||
Provider unit cost ART per year (2016,US$) | 3561 | [19] |