Figure 2

Likelihood profile for long-term (to 2080) projections of future vCJD cases fitting to a) the vCJD case data alone and b) to the vCJD case data and prevalence data. The bold line shows the cut-off corresponding to the 95% confidence limit (based on the maximized log likelihood and one degree of freedom). For b), the blue and red lines show the contribution to the likelihood from the vCJD case data and prevalence data respectively.