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Table 1 Parameters

From: Modeling the impact of novel diagnostic tests on pediatric and extrapulmonary tuberculosis

Definition HIV status Value Range References
Non-TB death rate per year all 0.022 0.02-0.025  
TB mortality per year HIV negative 0.15 0.1-0.22 [1, 19]
  HIV positive 0.50 0.4-0.7 [20]
Transmission events per infectious person-year in year 10* all 8.95   
Partial immunity afforded by previous infection HIV negative 0.45 0.4-0.55 [21, 22]
  HIV positive 0 0-0.2  
Proportion of TB infections progressing rapidly to active TB HIV negative 0.14 0.05-0.14 [23]
  HIV positive 0.25 0.16-0.27  
Endogenous reactivation rate per year HIV negative 0.0005 0.08-1.4 x10−3 [24]
  HIV positive 0.05 0.03–0.05
Rate of self-cure in active TB per year HIV negative 0.1 0.08-0.28 [25]
  HIV positive 0 0-0.2  
Percent of patients without access to diagnostics all 0.1 0.05-0.25 [26]
Sensitivity of current diagnostic standard for PTB all 0.80 0.6-0.9 [18, 33]
Sensitivity of current diagnostic standard for EPTB all 0.6 0.4-0.8  
Sensitivity of novel test methods for PTB all 0.95 0.75-0.98 [2729]
Proportion of adults that develop EPTB or sputum scarce PTB in HIV negative 0.18 0.15-0.25 [31, 32]
  HIV positive 0.35 0.3-0.7  
Proportion of children that develop EPTB or sputum scarce PTB independent of HIV status (weighted average among different age groups) all 0.85 0.6-0.9 [5]
  1. Abbreviations: TB tuberculosis, NAAT nucleic-acid amplification test, EPTB extrapulmonary TB. *averaged over all patients with pulmonary TB (HIV-positive patients are estimated to be about half as infectious as HIV-negative patients).