Fig. 6

Posterior estimates and performance of the simplified prevalence model, assuming the final hospital diagnosis is the true status. A Posterior estimates of coefficients of clinical TBM risk factors. Points, thick and thin lines are medians, 50% and 95% credible intervals. B ROC plot and AUC. AUC values are presented as “average (min—max over 20 repetitions of cross-validation)”. C Calibration plot, showing the relationship between the predicted probability and observe outcome, smoothed by a loess curve. The grey lines are fitted curves from each 20-fold cross validation and coloured lines represents their average. The cross-validation procedure is explained in the Statistical supplementary appendix