Table 3 Median and 95% interval of weighted interval score (WIS) and squared error of the median of one-, two-, three- and four-week-ahead national-level death forecasts for Czechia, France and Italy for our model (Endemic-Epidemic, EE) and European COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble model (Ensemble) across all time points in the prediction period from 29th October 2022 to 22nd April 2023
From: Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries
Country | Forecast horizon (weeks) | WIS, median (95% interval) | Squared error of median, median (95% interval) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EE | Ensemble | EE | Ensemble | ||
Czechia | 1 | 3.91 (1.34–18.9) | 7.1 (2.25-34) | 30.5 (0.25–850) | 81 (0.55–4320) |
2 | 5.72 (1.69–52.5) | 9.81 (3.53–75.7) | 110 (1.75–4330) | 182 (2.58–22,200) | |
3 | 4.49 (1.45–66.9) | 9.33 (3.99–212) | 60.1 (0.144–7970) | 225 (25-160000) | |
4 | 6.9 (2.13-42) | 16.3 (4.44–546) | 240 (5.06–2770) | 362 (4-1110000) | |
France | 1 | 41.7 (3.61–195) | 28.1 (11.3–82.8) | 6320 (7.19–47,500) | 1870 (50.7-28400) |
2 | 39.9 (5.41–206) | 37 (12.3–88.9) | 3800 (83.6-57200) | 1850 (34-30400) | |
3 | 43.2 (10.9–199) | 58.5 (18.2–115) | 5780 (135-67000) | 5630 (293-41900) | |
4 | 53.1 (4.59–185) | 47.7 (17.2–199) | 5820 (34.8-50200) | 4620 (4.05-119000) | |
Italy | 1 | 28.9 (4.01–129) | 39.2 (21.7–114) | 760 (2.59–26,500) | 2510 (72.9-45300) |
2 | 34.3 (3.87–213) | 46.6 (19.8–156) | 2920 (18.6-59700) | 1940 (49-70200) | |
3 | 49.2 (5.32–192) | 63.3 (33.7–187) | 7440 (76.2-56900) | 6520 (256-92000) | |
4 | 30.8 (6.39–205) | 66.3 (33.2–255) | 3540 (111-64500) | 6240 (270-141000) | |