Table 2 Median and 95% interval of weighted interval score (WIS) and squared error of the median of one-, two-, three- and four-week-ahead national-level case forecasts for Czechia, France and Italy for our model (Endemic-Epidemic, EE) and European COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble model (Ensemble) across all time points in the prediction period from 29th October 2022 to 22nd April 2023

Czechia

1

3.99 (0.438 − 21)e + 02

6.34 (1.80–103)e + 02

2.13 (0.0147 − 49.4)e + 05

14.00 (0.429–2980)e + 05

2

7.00 (0.347 − 38.70)e + 02

12.6 (2.20–320)e + 02

8.36 (0.0408 − 157)e + 05

52.3 (0.578-32700)e + 05

3

9.99 (0.897 − 48.30)e + 02

18.60 (3.80–744)e + 02

13.7 (0.291 − 244)e + 05

110 (0.01120-189000)e + 05

4

11.10 (1.18–52.70)e + 02

26.10 (5.24–1700)e + 02

14.7 (0.492 − 290)e + 05

168 (1.71-1030000)e + 05

France

1

9.76 (0.101–129)e + 03

10.2 (1.3–86.2)e + 03

1.04 (0.00006-176)e + 08

1.66 (0.0461 − 144)e + 08

2

14.5 (5.50–256)e + 03

11.8 (1.34–184)e + 03

2.89 (0.0095–683)e + 08

2.41 (0.0179–678)e + 08

3

23.1 (3.36–425)e + 03

16.5 (1.97–297)e + 03

5.99 (0.171–1880)e + 08

4.62 (0.0149–1550)e + 08

4

29.6 (2.1–570)e + 03

22.4 (3.26–353)e + 03

9.08 (0.076–340)e + 08

6.49 (0.0606–2480)e + 08

Italy

1

2.73 (0.258 − 40)e + 03

6.63 (1.12-60)e + 03

1.38 (0.0112–219)e + 07

5.02 (0.0239–625)e + 07

2

5.81 (1.36–50.8)e + 03

8.36 (1.64–95.7)e + 03

6.69 (0.674 − 342)e + 07

4.49 (0.173–1720)e + 07

3

9.34 (1.19–71.2)e + 03

11.8 (1.84–109)e + 03

11.9 (0.414–633)e + 07

20.8 (0.00727–2880)e + 07

4

10.5 (0.459 − 93.5)e + 03

15.2 (2.43–142)e + 03

20 (0.0119–1100)e + 07

28.7 (0.0548–5970)e + 07