Fig. 5

Visualisation of COVID-19 death forecasts for a region of Czechia in the RShiny app. A Map of forecasted 14-day incidence of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants from 9th to 23rd January 2023 at NUTS-3 level. B Age-stratified 28-day-ahead death forecasts for the region outlined in red in (A). Since the prediction date is 4 weeks in the past, the observed number of deaths is also plotted to allow assessment of the accuracy of the forecasts. The closeness of the median forecast to the observed data and the fact that the 95% prediction intervals cover nearly all of the observed data points indicate the good predictive performance of the model for this region. Time series forecast plots for other regions can be viewed in the app by clicking on those regions in the map. Together, panels (A) and (B) can be used to identify which regions appear to be at risk of higher burden