Fig. 2
From: Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries
Probability integral transform histograms showing the calibration of the daily case forecasts from the model for Italy, Czechia and France (columns, left to right) for one-, two-, three- and four-week-ahead forecast horizons (rows, top to bottom) for 29th October 2022 to 22nd April 2023. Uniform histograms indicate well-calibrated forecasts, while U- and inverse U-shaped histograms indicate underdispersed and overdispersed forecasts respectively. Red dashed lines at relative frequencies of 0.5 and 1.5 show reasonable bounds for calibration compared to desired relative frequency of 1 (blue dashed line)