Fig. 1
From: Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries
Comparison of one-, two-, three- and four-week-ahead national-level case forecasts (rows, top to bottom) for Italy, Czechia and France (columns, left to right) from our model (Endemic-Epidemic (EE) model) with ensemble forecasts from the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub (ensemble) and observed cases (data) for a calibration period from 29th October 2022 to 22nd April 2023. Dashed lines show median forecasts, shaded regions the 95% prediction interval (97.5th – 2.5th percentile) for the forecasts. The gaps in the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub forecasts correspond to periods in which no ensemble forecasts were produced. Prediction intervals for the EE model are calculated from 100 simulations of the model accounting for uncertainty in the fitted parameter values and stochastic variations. The weekly number of cases is shown using a logged axis