Fig. 5

Regional trajectories of stop-and-go lockdown scenarios for specific trigger and release thresholds. a Trajectory of regional daily hospital admissions, model fit vs. stop-and-go lockdown scenarios for three different choices of the trigger and release thresholds, indicated by the dashed horizontal lines (top: T,R; center: T-70%,R-35%; bottom: T-35%,R-70%). b Regional timeline of lockdowns, observed (gray areas) vs. lockdown scenarios (red bars). Gray shaded areas in the plots correspond to social distancing measures: the second lockdown during the second wave in the fall 2020 (darker gray), followed by the curfew (lighter gray) from January to March 2021, and the third lockdown during the third wave in the spring 2021 (darker gray). The vertical dashed line denotes the anticipation of the nighttime curfew at 6 pm, on January 16, 2021. c Variation in hospitalizations by region under the lockdown scenario compared to observations