Fig. 3

Spatial vs. non spatial model. a Regional effective reproductive numbers R for the second lockdown (LD2, dark blue dots), third lockdown (LD3, light blue dots) and the 6 pm nighttime curfew in the period following the winter holidays (yellow dots). Dots represent median reproductive number values. Filled symbols refer to the estimates obtained with the spatial model, void symbols represent the estimates obtained with the non-spatial model, i.e. neglecting inter-regional mobility. b Scattered plot between the incoming mobility divided by the patch population and the relative deviation in the estimated effective reproductive numbers obtained with the non-spatial model, for the different NPIs applied (six dots for each region, referring to six different NPIs). Colors of the dots refer to the regions. Results of a Spearman correlation test (r = 0.46, p-value < 10^–4). LD2: second lockdown in the fall 2020; curfew 8 pm: nighttime curfew starting at 8 pm, from mid December 2020 to mid January 2021; curfew 6 pm pre-holidays: mid January 2021 to mid February 2021; curfew 6 pm holidays: mid February 2021 to late February 2021; curfew 6 pm post-holidays: late February 2021 to early April 2021 (see Table S2); LD3: third lockdown in the spring 2021