Fig. 2

Estimated impact of implemented NPIs. a Reduction in the estimated regional basic reproductive numbers R₀ associated to the implemented NPIs compared with the values estimated before the second lockdown. Box plots represent the median (line in the middle of the box), interquartile range (box limits) and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles (whiskers) of the estimated values for the 12 French regions. Filled boxplots represent reductions estimated by the fit accounting for all time-varying processes (R₀); void boxplots represent the same reductions discounting the seasonal and Alpha effects (R₀^intrinsic). b Estimates of the regional effective reproductive numbers R for the implemented NPIs; box plots as defined in (a). Filled boxplots represent fit estimates accounting for all time-varying processes (R); void boxplots represent the same estimates discounting the seasonal and Alpha effects (R^intrinsic). c Regional effective reproductive numbers R for the second lockdown (LD2, dark blue dots), third lockdown (LD3, light blue dots) and the 6 pm nighttime curfew in the period following the winter holidays (yellow dots). Dots represent median reproductive number values and error bars the 95% confidence interval. LD2: second lockdown in the fall 2020; curfew 8 pm: nighttime curfew starting at 8 pm, from mid December 2020 to mid January 2021; curfew 6 pm pre-holidays: mid January 2021 to mid February 2021; curfew 6 pm holidays: mid February 2021 to late February 2021; curfew 6 pm post-holidays: late February 2021 to early April 2021 (see Table S2); LD3: third lockdown in the spring 2021