Fig. 1

COVID-19 pandemic in French regions between September 2020 and June 2021. a Regional maps of the per capita hospital admissions as of October 30, 2020 (left, start of the first lockdown) and March 20, 2021 (center, start of the third lockdown in regions IDF, HDF, in one department of NOR and one department of PACA). Hospital admissions displayed on the maps are obtained from a weekly rolling mean of the data. Regional map of the frequency of the Alpha variant (%) as of January 27, 2021 (right, date of the second genomic surveillance survey). Abbreviations refer to the regions: ARA, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes; BFC, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté; BRE, Brittany; CVL, Centre-Val de Loire; GRE, Grand Est; HDF, Hauts-de-France; IDF, Île-de-France, the region of Paris; NAQ, Nouvelle Aquitaine; NOR, Normandy; OCC, Occitanie; PACA, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur; PDL, Pays de la Loire. b Variation of regional outgoing mobility from Île-de-France to other regions with respect to pre-pandemic levels. The time intervals indicated over the x-axis refer to (planned or enforced) school closures. c For each region, the panel shows the model (orange curve and shaded area indicating the median and 95% probability range) fitted to daily hospital admissions data (gray dots). Each plot also shows the percentage of Alpha variant over time (blue histogram, right y-axis). The dashed horizontal line refers to the threshold triggering the second lockdown. Black arrows at the top of each plot correspond to social distancing measures: the second lockdown during the second wave in the fall 2020 (continuous line), followed by the curfew (dashed line) from January to March 2021, and the third lockdown during the third wave in the spring 2021 (continuous line)