Fig. 1

Empirical datasets used to convert from prevalence to incidence. Dataset 1 (blue line) exhibits the sensitivity of RT-PCR testing as a function of the time elapsed from the onset of symptoms [29]. The vertical dashed line denotes day 0 of symptom onset with the previous 5-day incubation period remaining unchanged from the original study. Dataset 2 (purple line) represents the probability of a positive RT-PCR test result, as estimated in a modelling study [30]. Dataset 3 is an assumed 77% sensitivity multiplied by a survival curve of RT-PCR positivity. The yellow line illustrates 77% sensitivity of RT-PCR positivity based on observation data from unvaccinated prisoners in the United States [31] with COVID-19 infection caused by the Delta variant