Table 5 Comparison of prediction results of three models
Month | Incidence | Holt-Winters forecast | SARIMA forecast | ETS forecast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecast | Forecast error (%) | Forecast | Forecast error (%) | Forecast | Forecast error (%) | ||
2021/7/1 | 7.14 | 13.09 | 83.33 | 7.11 | -0.42 | 8.48 | 18.77 |
2021/8/1 | 7.72 | 7.19 | -6.87 | 6.36 | -17.62 | 7.12 | -7.77 |
2021/9/1 | 16.61 | 11.63 | -29.98 | 6.75 | -59.36 | 8.74 | -47.38 |
2021/10/1 | 15.28 | 11.65 | -23.76 | 7.9 | -48.3 | 8.94 | -41.49 |
2021/11/1 | 17.03 | 15.19 | -10.8 | 13.24 | -22.25 | 11.86 | -30.36 |
2021/12/1 | 4.98 | 2.46 | -50.6 | 2.09 | -58.03 | 1.75 | -64.86 |
2022/1/1 | 1.08 | 1.43 | 32.41 | 1.33 | 23.15 | 0.94 | -12.96 |
2022/2/1 | 1.49 | 2.37 | 59.06 | 1.47 | -1.34 | 1.15 | -22.82 |
2022/3/1 | 3.73 | 2.4 | -35.66 | 2.19 | -41.29 | 2 | -46.38 |
2022/4/1 | 2.15 | 3.45 | 60.47 | 2.5 | 16.28 | 2.17 | 0.93 |