Table 4 The prediction of SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0) 12 model, ETS model and Holt-Winters model
Month | Incidence | SARIMA model(95%CI) | ETS model(95%CI) | Holt-Winter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
model(95%CI) | ||||
2021/7/1 | 7.14 | 7.11(1.54,12.68) | 8.48(-0.04,17) | 13.09(12.51,13.67) |
2021/8/1 | 7.72 | 6.36(0.25,12.47) | 7.12(-0.53,14.76) | 7.19(6.57,7.81) |
2021/9/1 | 16.61 | 6.75(0.54,12.97) | 8.74(-1.23,18.71) | 11.63(10.61,12.65) |
2021/10/1 | 15.28 | 7.9(1.66,14.14) | 8.94(-1.83,19.71) | 11.65(10.3,12.99) |
2021/11/1 | 17.03 | 13.24(7,19.49) | 11.86(-3.18,26.9) | 15.19(13.03,17.35) |
2021/12/1 | 4.98 | 2.09(-4.15,8.34) | 1.75(-0.58,4.08) | 2.46(1.74,3.17) |
2022/1/1 | 1.08 | 1.33(-4.91,7.58) | 0.94(-0.37,2.24) | 1.43(0.74,2.12) |
2022/2/1 | 1.49 | 1.47(-4.78,7.71) | 1.15(-0.52,2.81) | 2.37(1.18,3.56) |
2022/3/1 | 3.73 | 2.19(-4.05,8.43) | 2(-1.02,5.03) | 2.4(0.86,3.94) |