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Table 3 Cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the counterfactual booster scenario

From: Assessing the COVID-19 vaccination program during the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) epidemic in early 2022, Tokyo

Age group (years)

Booster immunization coveragea

Averted cases (95% confidence interval)

Relative change (%)b

0–9

Equiv. to 2nd dose

617,501 (610,330–624,323)

-16.0

Equiv. to 4th dose

983,421 (976,418–990,687)

33.8

Elevated coverage

690,576 (684,180–696,569)

-6.0

10–19

Equiv. to 2nd dose

477,638 (471,417–483,874)

-18.4

Equiv. to 4th dose

800,801 (793,776–807,502)

36.8

Elevated coverage

540,508 (534,463–545,744)

-7.7

20–29

Equiv. to 2nd dose

684,634 (674,962–693,891)

-22.2

Equiv. to 4th dose

1,344,003 (1,331,788–1,355,746)

52.8

Elevated coverage

799,613 (791,240–806,938)

-9.1

30–39

Equiv. to 2nd dose

636,277 (627,136–644,993)

-22.1

Equiv. to 4th dose

1,305,604 (1,293,596–1,317,961)

59.9

Elevated coverage

747,156 (739,796–754,618)

-8.5

40–49

Equiv. to 2nd dose

608,320 (599,168–616,867)

-19.5

Equiv. to 4th dose

1,182,119 (1,171,865–1,192,611)

56.4

Elevated coverage

699,952 (691,723–707,332)

-7.4

50–59

Equiv. to 2nd dose

351,601 (345,798–3,56,991)

-18.3

Equiv. to 4th dose

714,765 (708,054–721,741)

66.1

Elevated coverage

412,497 (407,216–417,354)

-4.1

60–69

Equiv. to 2nd dose

164,808 (161,818–167,873)

-15.9

Equiv. to 4th dose

340,978 (337,381–344,436)

74.0

Elevated coverage

190,917 (188,132–193,644)

-2.6

70–79

Equiv. to 2nd dose

111,101 (108,918–113,236)

-14.9

Equiv. to 4th dose

196,119 (194,075–198,270)

50.3

Elevated coverage

127,683 (125,583–129,707)

-2.2

≥80

Equiv. to 2nd dose

108,193 (106,109–110,355)

-13.8

Equiv. to 4th dose

217,011 (214,658–219,338)

72.9

Elevated coverage

125,068 (123,036–127,109)

-0.3

  1. aEquiv. to 2nd dose: in the counterfactual booster program scenario, the vaccination coverage was equivalent to that of the second dose; Equiv. to 4th dose: in the counterfactual booster program scenario, the vaccination coverage was equivalent to that of the fourth dose; Elevated coverage: vaccination coverage among people aged 10–49 years was assumed to be 10% higher than the observed coverage
  2. bRelative change represents a comparison between the estimated counterfactual number of infections and the observed number of infections, considering a reporting coverage of 0.25