Fig. 4

Deaths averted and additional days spent in mitigation for using sentinel surveillance or hospital admissions indicators as the trigger for imposing mitigation measures, under 3 levels of transmission hikes in a population of 2.5 million, compared with using hospital occupancy. (A) Mean and 90% confidence interval of deaths averted and additional days of mitigation, from 500 stochastic realizations per indicator. (B) Average deaths averted per average additional day in mitigation for each indicator and its relationship with false alarm rate. False alarm rate is the proportion of simulations in which action is taken before the transmission hike.