Fig. 2

Goodness-of-fit and estimated effects of covariates included in the multivariable model on the reproduction number R (in percentage of variation). A Trajectory of R estimated by the full model for an average department (red) compared to mean R (black). B Effects of linear and categorical covariates. Of note, the effect shown for first-dose vaccine coverage and the proportion of VOC corresponds to a covariate value of 100% (i.e., reflecting a fully vaccinated population and maximum prevalence of variants). C Non-linear effect of temperature. D Non-linear effect of absolute humidity. E Estimated seasonality of COVID-19 based on average temperature and absolute humidity observed over 1981–2010 in metropolitan France, after adjusting for other covariates. For C, D and E, fitted lines and their 95% confidence intervals show the estimated percentage of variation in R with respect to a baseline set to the value at the trough of the corresponding curve for weather variables. For C and D, the range of the x-axis is determined by the 2.5–97.5th percentile of the weather variable distribution