Fig. 1

Cost-effectiveness planes and acceptability frontiers. The cost-effectiveness planes (left) and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers (CEAFs; right) are plotted for A, B Scenario 1 (randomized outbreak timing), C, D Scenario 2 (no outbreak), and E, F Scenario 3 (outbreak has already occurred). In the cost-effectiveness planes, each dot represents the incremental costs (in 2020 USD) and DALYs averted for one simulation when compared with the base case of no vaccination. The bold Xs denote the expected additional cost and DALYs averted for each vaccination strategy with respect to no vaccination. Strategies are indicated by the color of the dot or X (purple: preventive routine vaccination; green: preventive routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign up to age 15; or orange: reactive routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign to age 15—for Scenario 1 only). In the CEAFs, the preferred strategy (i.e. the strategy that yielded the highest average net benefit) for each willingness-to-pay threshold ($0–1000 per DALY averted; x-axis, 2020 USD) is indicated by the color of the line (black: no vaccination; and same strategy colors as other panels), while the proportion of samples in which that strategy yielded the highest net benefit is indicated by the value on the y-axis; this can be interpreted as our certainty in the optimal strategy