Fig. 2

Effect of Go To Travel campaign on number of prefectures exceeding certain incidence criteria. We counted the prefectures where the number of newly reported cases (per 100,000 population) before and after the campaign (intervention) exceeded the threshold values of three, five, and seven cases per week. The vertical lines indicate when the second campaign (intervention) started. The yellow dots represent observed data; the blue lines show the estimated results of the interrupted time-series analysis. The blue shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals for the modeled results. The blue dashed lines during the second campaign period represent the estimated counterfactual scenario, i.e., if the campaign had not been launched. Model 1 assumed that there were changes in the baseline level and rate of increase following the second campaign