Parameter | 2014 Sierra Leone Epidemic | 2018 DRC (North Kivu) Epidemic | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No vaccination | 30% of HCW vaccinated | 90% of HCW vaccinated | 30% of HCW + 5% of GP vaccinated | 30% of HCW + 10% of GP vaccinated | No vaccination | 30% of HCW vaccinated | 90% of HCW vaccinated | 30% of HCW + 5% of GP vaccinated | 30% of HCW + 10% of GP vaccinated | |
Number vaccinated | 0 | 346 | 1038 | 351,145 | 701,944 | 0 | 1569 | 4707 | 416,307 | 831,044 |
Cumulative cases (IQR; 95%CI) | 8711 (4420–11,946; 597–22,026) | 6740 (3242–9413; 240–17,667) | 3856 (1578–5432; 77–11,239) | 3855 (1774–5426; 136–10,635) | 2285 (978–3183; 70–6589) | 2782 (700–4026; 54–9637) | 1928 (344–2862; 49–7295) | 942 (167–1326; 43–4061) | 1004 (204–1448; 47–3848) | 567 (147–799; 41–2105) |
Proportion of cases averted vs no vaccination (IQR; 95%CI) | – | 23% (21–27%; 19–55%) | 56% (54–64%; 47–84%) | 56% (55–60%; 51–74%) | 74% (73–78%; 69–87%) | – | 31% (28–43%; 12–51%) | 66% (63–76%; 20–79%) | 64% (62–70%; 13–73%) | 80% (78–82%; 24–83%) |
Proportion of cases averted vs vaccination of 30% of HCW (IQR; 95%CI) | – | – | – | 43% (42–45%; 36–46%) | 66% (66–70%; 61–75%) | – | – | – | 48% (40–51%; 5–53%) | 71% (57–72%; 14–73%) |
Cumulative deaths (IQR; 95%CI) | 3580 (1834–4901; 246–9000) | 2749 (1316–3865; 89–7192) | 1544 (626–2177; 32–4545) | 1466 (668–2064; 54–4049) | 821 (350–1152; 29–2391) | 1876 (477–2722; 36–6453) | 1297 (231–1922; 31–4877) | 627 (107–885; 28–2700) | 669 (133–968; 30–2578) | 371 (94–524; 26–1384) |
Proportion of deaths averted vs no vaccination (IQR; 95%CI) | – | 23% (22–28%; 19–57%) | 57% (56–65%; 48–84%) | 59% (58–63%; 54–75%) | 77% (76–81%; 73–88%) | – | 31% (28–43%; 14–51%) | 67% (64–76%; 24–80%) | 64% (62–71%; 18–74%) | 80% (78–83%; 29–84%) |
Proportion of deaths averted vs vaccination of 30% of HCW (IQR; 95%CI) | – | – | – | 47% (46–49%; 38–50%) | 70% (70–73%; 65–77%) | – | – | – | 48% (42–51%; 6–54%) | 71% (59–73%; 17–74%) |