Table 1 Model fitting using individual and disease/epidemic-specific parameters
Parameter | Description | 2014 Sierra Leone Epidemic | 2018 DRC (North Kivu) Epidemic | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Days 0–95 | Days 95–186 | Days 186–587 | Source | Days 0–120 | Days 120–217 | Days 217–273 | Days 273–385 | Days 385–546 | Source | ||
N | Size of the total population at time 0 | 7,017,144 Sierra Leone (2014) | World Bank Group [52] | 8,300,000 North Kivu province of DRC (2018) | UN-OCHA [53] | ||||||
SHCW | HCW at time 0 | 1153 | Evans, 2015 [11] | 5230 | Barroy, 2014 [51] | ||||||
1/σ | Mean latency period | 7 days | 7 days | 7 days | Legrand, 2007 [54] | 7 days | 7 days | 7 days | 7 days | 7 days | Meakin, 2018 [55] |
1/γD | Mean duration from death to burial | 2 days | 2 days | 2 days | Legrand, 2007 [54] | 2 days | 2 days | 2 days | 2 days | 2 days | |
1/α | Mean duration from onset of infection to hospitalization | 2.4 days | 2.4 days | 2.2 days | Fitted | 5.0 days | 5.0 days | 4.0 days | 3.5 days | 3.5 days | Fitted |
βI→HCW | Transmission rate from infectious individuals to HCW (In 1/days) | 117.8 | 15.0 | 5.1 | Fitted | 30.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.8 | Fitted |
βH→HCW | Transmission rate from hospitalized individuals to HCW (In 1/days) | 189.21 | 23.64 | 8.88 | Fitted | 37.0 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | Fitted |
βD→HCW | Transmission rate from dead but not buried individuals to HCW (In 1/days) | 0.0726 | 0.0511 | 0.0450 | Fitted | 0.035 | 0.032 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0.030 | Fitted |
βI→NHCW | Transmission rate from infectious individuals to the non-HCW/general population (In 1/days) | 0.635 | 0.594 | 0.425 | Fitted | 0.2700 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | 0.2780 | 0.2557 | Fitted |
βH→NHCW | Transmission rate from hospitalized individuals to the non-HCW/general population (In 1/days) | 0.0020 | 0.0010 | 0.0005 | Fitted | 0.0160 | 0.0140 | 0.0200 | 0.0165 | 0.0160 | Fitted |
βD→NHCW | Transmission rate from dead but not buried individuals to the non-HCW/general population (In 1/days) | 0.0726 | 0.0511 | 0.0450 | Fitted | 0.035 | 0.032 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0.030 | Fitted |
δ1 | Case fatality rate among non-hospitalized infectious individuals | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.68 | Fitted | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.68 | 0.50 | Fitted |
δ2 | Case fatality rate among hospitalized individuals | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.68 | Fitted | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.68 | 0.50 | Fitted |
1/γ | Mean duration from onset of infection to death/recovery | 6 days | 6 days | 6 days | Fitted | 9.6 days | 9.6 days | 9.6 days | 9.6 days | 9.6 days | Meakin, 2018 [55] |
1/γH | Mean duration from hospitalization to death/recovery | 6.2 days | 8.3 days | 16 days | Fitted | 4.6 days | 4.6 days | 7.0 days | 8.0 days | 8.2 days | Fitted |
K1 | Proportion of HCW in the total population at the start of the epidemic | 0.016% | Calculated (Evans, 2015) [11] | 0.063% | Calculated (Barroy, 2014) [51] | ||||||