Fig. 8

Estimation of herd immunity and vaccination campaign in Kenya. Simulation of herd and vaccine-derived immunity using time-varying SIR model with 20% of the population assumed to have acquired neutralizing antibodies and 2% of the population assumed to have been vaccinated against COVID-19. A Proportion of the infected compartment with antibodies against SARS-COV-2 during the 2020/2021 window. The first and second turning points occurred on September 30 and December 04 2020; B Proportion of the removed compartment with antibodies against SARS-COV-2 during 2020/2021 window. The first and second turning points occurred on September 30 and December 04 2020; C Prediction of the infection during 2021/2022 window assuming that 20% of the population has antibodies against SARS-COV-2. The first and second turning points occurred on August 27 and August 30 2021; D Prediction of infection during the 2020/2021 window assuming that 2% of the population is vaccinated. The first and second turning points occurred on April 10 and April 30 2021; E Prediction of the removed compartment assuming that 2% of the population is vaccinated. The first and second turning points occurred on April 10 and April 30 2021; F Prediction of infection in 2021/2022 assuming that 2% of the population is vaccinated. The first and second turning points occurred on September 25 and September 30 2021