Table 1 Model parameters estimated by CRC for Italy using COVID-19 data from 1 September 2020 to 1 May 2021

\(b_{e,1}\)

0.1342

[0.1318–0.1721]

\(b_{0,1}\)

0.2109

[0.1833–0.214]

\(b_{e,2}\)

0.2512

[0.2393–0.3451]

\(b_{0,2}\)

0.19

[0.1366–0.205]

\(b_1\)

0.0120

[0.0112–0.0261]

\(b_2\)

0.0516

[0.0517–0.0677]

\(b_3\)

0.0145

[0.0112–0.0267

FracSevere

0.0253

[0.0221–0.0283]

\(FracCritical_1\)

0.005

[0.0051–0.0057]

\(FracCritical_2\)

0.007

[0.0061–0.0073]

\(FracCritical_3\)

0.0035

[0.0031–0.0039]

\(FracCritical_4\)

0.0048

[0.0041–0.0049]

FracAsym

0.4618

[0.4529–0.4772]

IncubPeriod

5.2668

[5.1188–5.2792]

DurMildInf

9.8982

[8.366–10.7008]

DurAsym

14.5149

[14.1736–15.7103]

DurHosp

15.6204

[15.0902–15.8961]

TimeICUDeath

12.6742

[12.0992–12.8822]

ProbDeath

34.7989

[33.4267–36.5895]

\(ProbDeath_H\)

25.3705

[22.1059–25.5674]

PresymPeriod

0.637

[0.6033–0.6363]

n

47.1717

[46.4324–58.8729

K

\(4.44\cdot 10^4\)

[\(3.3381\cdot 10^4\) – \(5.7296\cdot 10^4\)]

\(s_{01}\)

1.0409

[1.0055–1.0442]

\(s_{02}\)

0.3095

[0.2653–0.369]

\(s_{03}\)

0.2634

[0.2099–03254]

\(s_{04}\)

0.6842

[0.612–0.7307]

\(s_{05}\)

0.1837

[0.1344–0.2704]