Fig. 2

The cumulative probability of an outbreak (a), large outbreak (b) and number of residents symptomatic (c) over time is dependent on community prevalence (high = dark blue, medium (baseline) = light blue, low = turquoise) in both nursing care homes (left panels) and residential care homes (right panels). The coloured line represents the median and the shaded area represents the 25–75%. The vertical dashed lines show the thresholds (30 and 90 days) at which the cumulative probability of an outbreak and a large outbreak (respectively) were assessed in subsequent analysis