Fig. 3
From: On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts
Comparison of predicted and reported weekly COVID-19 deaths in EU and EFTA countries and the UK (data updated January 2022). a Forecasts of reported weekly COVID-19 deaths in EU and EFTA countries and the UK for 1-week forecasting horizons. Blue and red lines represent ECDC ensemble forecasts [3] and regularized Euler forecasts [Eq. (6)] with \(\uplambda =10^4\), respectively. Reported COVID-19 fatalities (dashed black lines) are based on [11]. b 1-week moving averages of weekly forecasting errors of Euler–Lagrange and ECDC ensemble forecasts. Solid lines indicate 1-week moving averages that are calculated based on the shown data points