Fig. 1

Outbreak probability. For each level of restrictions, the proportion of simulations where introducing an undiagnosed infection to a setting with zero transmission was contained (blue; defined as a 7-day average of 0 cases per day after 60 days), under control (orange; defines as a 7-day average of > 0 but < 5 diagnoses per day after 60 days), or led to an outbreak (red; defined as a 7-day average of > 5 cases per day after 60 days). The error bars show the 95% binomial confidence interval for the 1000 simulations performed, reflecting uncertainty in the estimation of the probability for the given number of model runs