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Table 1 Summary of the used model parameters and their uncertainties according to literature

From: Preventing COVID-19 outbreaks through surveillance testing in healthcare facilities: a modelling study

Name

Unit

Lower

Best

Upper

Description

Source

Asymptomatic fraction

[%]

10

20

30

Fraction of asymptomatic disease courses

[10,11,12,13]

Asymptomatic infectivity

[%]

40

70

100

Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals compared to symptomatic individuals

[1, 11, 12]

False symptoms

[agents/day]

0.5

1

2

Average daily amount of non-COVID-19 related symptomatic individuals

Assumed

False traces

[agents]

4

8

12

Average amount of erroneously traced individuals assuming perfect tracing efficiency

Assumed

Heterogeneity modifier

[]

2

4

6

Scaling factor of infectivity in transmission matrix of high-risk/low-risk staff

Assumed

Incubation mean

[days]

5

5.5

6

Mean of incubation time

[14, 15]

Incubation SD

[days]

2.1

2.3

2.5

Standard deviation of incubation time

[14]

Infectivity heterogeneity

[]

1

1.5

1000

Heterogeneity in individual infectivity: Shape parameter of the Gamma-distribution

Derived from [16, 17]

Isolation fraction

[%/day]

50

70

90

Fraction of symptomatic individuals isolated daily

Assumed

Outside infection

[]

0.01

0.04

0.16

Scaling factor of infection risk outside of clinic

Assumed

Peak infectiousness

[days]

− 1

1

3

Time shift of peak infectiousness relative to symptom onset

[18]

Prevalence

[%]

0.005

0.02

0.08

COVID-19 prevalence in population including non-confirmed cases

Assumed

R0

[]

1.5

3

5

Average number of infections an individual causes inside of clinic

Assumed

Symptom mean

[days]

3.5

5

6.5

Mean of symptomatic infectious time

Derived from [19,20,21,22]

Symptom SD

[days]

1.1

1.5

1.9

Standard deviation of symptomatic infectious time

Derived from [19,20,21,22]

Test compliance

[%]

60

80

100

Fraction of individuals compliant with repeated surveillance testing

Assumed

Test sensitivity

[%]

80

90

100

Sensitivity of diagnostic test

Derived from [5, 23, 24]

Test specificity

[%]

98

99.5

100

Specificity of diagnostic test

Assumed

Tracing fraction

[%]

50

70

90

Fraction of infections reconstructed by contact tracing

Assumed

  1. Upper and lower bounds are used for 1-way sensitivity analysis as they represent the existing lack of knowledge about these parameters. The term “derived from” indicates that input from the stated sources was not directly applicable in the model and required some form of subjective judgement and modification prior to the inclusion into the model