Fig. 4

Impact of test-to-result delay (A), definition of outbreak size (B) and compliance (C) on the relative outbreak probability. The vertical axes denote outbreak probabilities on a log 2-scale, normalized relative to the largest outbreak probability of the respective analysis. Uncertainties due to stochasticity of the dynamics are visualized by 1\(\sigma\) error bars, but these are mostly smaller than the point size. Results correspond to the best guess parameter set (except for changes for the particular analysis). A Decreasing test-to-result delay leads to more effective surveillance. B Decreasing probabilities within a strategy implies containment of ongoing outbreaks. C Different levels of compliance are analysed for various regular testing frequencies implemented on top of the symptom-based baseline surveillance strategy and entry testing. The horizontal axis corresponds to a frequency scale, as test frequency is proportional to test resources required. Benefits of increasing the test frequency are limited by lack of compliance, especially if test frequency is already high