Fig. 3

Reduction of outbreak probability by active testing strategies relative to the symptom-based baseline strategy. Results are illustrated on a log2-scale. The black lines correspond to the estimate of outbreak reduction for the best guess parameters. Each point corresponds to the estimated outbreak reduction for a 1-way sensitivity analysis of the corresponding parameter towards its upper bound (red) or lower bound (blue). Uncertainties due to stochasticity of the dynamics are visualized by 1\(\sigma\) error bars. The results for the expected reduction of the outbreak probability are robust to most epidemiological parameter assumptions, the exact parameter values employed are stated in Table 1