Table 1 Epidemiological parameters used for calibrating the model and their prior distribution ranges

Early progression (ε) (year⁻¹)

0.401775

Uniform [0.1–0.8]

[17]

Transition to late latency (κ) (year⁻¹)

3.6525

Uniform [1.0–7.0]

[17]

Reactivation (ν) (year⁻¹)

0.002008875

Uniform [0.0009, 0.006]

[17]

Spontaneous recovery (γ) (year⁻¹)

0.2

Gamma [0.16, 0.29], mode = 0.20

[18]

Natural mortality (μ) (year⁻¹)

0.0142

TB-specific mortality (μ_i) (year⁻¹)

0.2

Gamma [0.06, 1.06], mode = 0.08

[18]

Relative risk of reinfection once infected

0.21

–

[19]

Transmission rate (β)

[1–35]

[1–30]

Uniform

Fitted

Fitness cost of INH-R TB strain

[0.50–1.20]

Uniform

[20], [21]

Fitness cost of RIF-R TB strain

[0.50–1.20]

Uniform

[22], [12]

Fitness cost of MDR-TB strain

[0.50–0.99]

Uniform

[23]

Proportion of failures developing RIF-R TB (ρ_R)

[0.01–0.99]

Uniform

Fitted

Proportion of failures developing INH-R TB (ρ_H)

[0.01–0.99]

Uniform

Fitted

Relative risk of reinfection once recovered

[0.50–1.50]

Uniform

Fitted

CDR start time

[1950 -1970]

Uniform

Fitted

CDR final value

[0.30–0.80]

Uniform

Fitted