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Table 3 Model results and fit criteria for the count data of index cases with all contacts

From: Sensitivity of contact-tracing for COVID-19 in Thailand: a capture-recapture application

Model

Log-likelihood

AIC

BIC

Poisson (\({\hat{\lambda }}\) = 18.648)

\(-\)4663.285

9328.569

9332.401

Negative Binomial (mue = 14.479, size = 0.4197)

\(-\)1304.133

2612.266

2619.93

Geometric (\({\hat{p}}\) = 0.0536)

\(-\)1329.368

2660.735

2664.567

  1. Bold values indicate that Negative Binomial is the best fit for the distribution of the number of index cases with contacts (n=341) due to the smallest AIC and BIC