A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

Kondili, Loreta A.; Andreoni, Massimo; Alberti, Alfredo; Lobello, Salvatore; Babudieri, Sergio; De Michina, Antonella; Merolla, Rocco; Marrocco, Walter; Craxì, Antonio

doi:10.1186/s12879-022-07042-w

Table 4 Estimates of the absolute number and % of viraemic HCV individuals in Italy according to fibrosis stage, route of transmission and macro area

From: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

Macroarea	Transmission route	Fibrosis stage	Absolute number			Prevalence (%)
Macroarea	Transmission route	Fibrosis stage	Number	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	Mean	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI
North	GS + transfusion	F0–F3	3318	2591	4118	0.01	0.01	0.01
	GS + transfusion	F4	6817	5211	8384	0.02	0.02	0.03
	PWID	F0–F3	64,922	51,853	79,217	0.23	0.18	0.28
	PWID	F4	15,399	11,393	19,517	0.05	0.04	0.07
	Sex	F0–F3	18,722	14,870	22,705	0.07	0.05	0.08
	Sex	F4	1156	816	1482	< 0.01	< 0.01	0.01
	Tattoo	F0–F3	38,761	30,970	47,218	0.14	0.11	0.17
	Tattoo	F4	4260	3026	5614	0.02	0.01	0.02
	Vertical	F0–F3	652	508	827	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
	Vertical	F4	367	271	474	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
Central	GS + transfusion	F0–F3	4713	3681	5780	0.04	0.03	0.05
	GS + transfusion	F4	14,882	11,763	18,069	0.12	0.1	0.15
	PWID	F0–F3	36,674	29,263	44,609	0.31	0.24	0.37
	PWID	F4	14,781	11,568	18,194	0.12	0.1	0.15
	Sex	F0–F3	9796	7819	11,863	0.08	0.07	0.1
	Sex	F4	922	690	1156	0.01	0.01	0.01
	Tattoo	F0–F3	20,894	16,638	25,354	0.17	0.14	0.21
	Tattoo	F4	3687	2793	4645	0.03	0.02	0.04
	Vertical	F0–F3	376	297	462	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
	Vertical	F4	365	291	449	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
South	GS + transfusion	F0–F3	5423	4242	6733	0.04	0.03	0.05
	GS + transfusion	F4	17,035	13,367	20,767	0.12	0.1	0.15
	PWID	F0–F3	34,432	27,465	41,917	0.25	0.2	0.3
	PWID	F4	12,548	9707	15,594	0.09	0.07	0.11
	Sex	F0–F3	9444	7523	11,516	0.07	0.05	0.08
	Sex	F4	799	589	1003	0.01	< 0.01	0.01
	Tattoo	F0–F3	19,834	15,787	24,109	0.14	0.11	0.17
	Tattoo	F4	3064	2281	3925	0.02	0.02	0.03
	Vertical	F0–F3	407	316	512	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
	Vertical	F4	354	281	439	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
Isles	GS + transfusion	F0–F3	1958	1525	2404	0.03	0.02	0.04
	GS + transfusion	F4	5861	4626	7192	0.09	0.07	0.11
	PWID	F0–F3	15,268	12,147	18,505	0.23	0.19	0.28
	PWID	F4	4787	3722	5964	0.07	0.06	0.09
	Sex	F0–F3	4628	3681	5632	0.07	0.06	0.09
	Sex	F4	372	274	484	0.01	< 0.01	0.01
	Tattoo	F0–F3	9748	7782	11,851	0.15	0.12	0.18
	Tattoo	F4	1403	1037	1843	0.02	0.02	0.03
	Vertical	F0–F3	201	155	253	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01
	Vertical	F4	155	111	202	< 0.01	< 0.01	< 0.01

Fibrosis stages: F0–F3 = asymptomatic; undiagnosed/unlinked to care and F4 = symptomatic; potentially linked to care and cure
CI confidence intervals, GS glass syringe, HCV hepatitis C virus, PWID people who inject drugs

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ISSN: 1471-2334

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