Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 2 Univariate model outputs and goodness-of-fit measures for the tested covariates against cholera outbreak occurrence, including p-values, coefficients, BIC and AUC

Covariate	p value	Coefficient	BIC	AUC
Potential evapotranspiration (mm/day)	0.961	0.011	785.323	0.5979
Annual freshwater withdrawal (billion m³)	0.649	− 0.029	784.570	0.5279
Runoff (mm/year)	0.373	− 0.064	785.395	0.6068
Health expenditure (% GDP)	0.371	0.126	783.253	0.5389
Prevalence of malnourishment (% population)	0.139	− 0.169	784.014	0.5892
Gross domestic output (current $)	0.126	− 0.091	783.079	0.5148
Population density (people/km²)	0.051*	− 0.145	781.802	0.5773
Water withdrawal per capita (m³/person/year)	0.032*	0.151	762.801	0.6184
Average precipitation (mm)	0.021*	− 0.263	780.742	0.6345
People with basic handwashing facilities (% population)	0.018*	0.189	766.430	0.5882
Percentage living in informal settlement (% urban population)	0.013*	− 0.467	778.730	0.4903
Mean drought	0.003*	− 0.199	768.863	0.5827
Human Development Index	0.0002*	1.014	767.927	0.6562
People using at least basic sanitation (% population)	0.0001*	0.384	757.283	0.6347
Poverty headcount (% population at < $1.90/day)	0.0001*	− 0.583	768.649	0.7018
Average temperature (°C)	0.00005*	− 1.715	765.124	0.5349
Soil moisture (%)	0.00003*	− 0.706	768.044	0.6871
People with basic drinking water (% population)	0.00002*	0.906	762.312	0.6521
Population (log. population in thousands)	0.0000000004*	− 3.064	741.192	0.6521

ISSN: 1471-2334