Fig. 1

Susceptible, Infected, Recovered Model Assumptions. After exposure to SARS-CoV-2 a proportion of susceptible individuals become infected, entering the incubation phase before proceeding to the disease phase. 50% of individuals in the disease phase are assumed to spontaneously present to clinical services, the ‘presenting proportion’. The remaining ‘non-presenting proportion’ (those with minor, no or unrecognised symptoms or who avoid health services due to fear or stigma) will only be identified through active case finding and testing efforts as part of the public health response. We assume infectiousness commences 48 h prior to onset of symptoms (if they occur) and persists until resolution of symptoms. While we do not explicitly split out asymptomatics from the non-presenting proportion, we conservatively assume that they are as infectious as individuals with symptoms