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Table 1 Model parameters, description, source and the basic reproduction number in China, 2015–2018

From: The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children under different vaccination scenarios in China: a dynamic modelling study

Parameters Description Source 2015 2016 2017 2018
S(0)* Number of susceptible children under 5 Fixed [1] 95,920,000 96,490,000 98,290,000 94,386,870
V(0) Vaccinated Fixed [16] 0 0 0 5,110,000
E(0) in [500,5 ×104] Number of exposed under incubation periods MSS [17] 3000 1800 2000 1200
IN(0) in [500,5 ×104] Infectious but not hospitalized MSS [17] 1000 1200 1800 800
I2(0) Infectious with pathogens other than EV71 or CVA16 / other than EV71 Calculated, 0.3/0.55 × reported cases in January/30** 577.5 795 1419 638
I3(0) Infectious with EV71-HFMD or CVA16-HFMD / EV71-HFMD Calculated, 0.7/0.45 × reported cases in January/30** 1347.5 1855 1161 522
R(0) Recovered Assumed 0 0 0 0
α Progression rate Assumed 1 1 1 1
β in [0.01,50] Transmission rate, Contact frequency × Infection efficiency MSS [17,18,19] 0.9387 0.7098 1.1188 0.8429
P1 in [0.01,1] Proportion of IN MSS [17] 0.9627 0.9663 0.8644 0.9333
P2 Proportion of I2 Calculated, 0.3/0.55 × (1-P1) ** 0.0112 0.0101 0.0746 0.0367
P3 Proportion of I3 Calculated, 0.7/0.45 × (1-P1) ** 0.0261 0.0236 0.0610 0.0300
γ1 in [0.1,1] Recovery rate of IN MSS[18] 0.8932 0.6441 1.0721 0.7573
γ2 in [0.1,1] Recovery rate of I2 MSS[18] 0.8852 0.7127 0.2619 0.3612
γ3 in [0.1,1] Recovery rate of I3 MSS[18] 0.4583 0.5497 0.4907 0.5264
γ in [0.0001,1] Relapse rate MSS*** [17] 0.0125 0.0136 0.0064 0.0139
π Birth rate Fixed [1] 0.01207/365 0.01295/365 0.01243/365 0.01094/365
μ Death rate of children under 5 Fixed [1] 0.0107/365 0.0102/365 0.00905/365 0.00832/365
v The number of vaccinated people per day Fixed [16] 0 0 14,000 24,000
VE Vaccine efficacy Fixed [12] 95% 95%
R0 Basic reproductive number Calculated 2.02 1.82 2.35 1.97
  1. *(0) denotes the initial number of different compartments
  2. **: The proportions of EV71, CV-A16 and other Enteroviruses are 45, 25 and 30% [20]. Therefore, the proportion of I2 (No EV71 or CVA16) and I3 (EV71 + CVA16) is 30 and 70% in 2015, 2016. While the proportion of I2 (No EV71) and I3 (EV71) is 55 and 45% in 2017 and 2018 due to the launch of EV71 vaccine
  3. ***: MSS minimum sum of square