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Table 3 Comparison of relative performance and correlation with observed data of projections of the models under consideration from October 16 till December 31, 2020

From: A comparison of five epidemiological models for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India

Observed data (confirmed)

Metric

Model

Baseline

eSIR

SAPHIRE

SEIR-fansy

ICMe

Cumulative cases

Rel-MSPEa

1

1.724

3.013

3.270

–

Pearson’s correlation coefficientb

0.996

0.969

0.984

0.999

Lin’s concordance coefficientb

0.507

0.476

0.738

0.891

Cumulative deaths

Rel-MSPEc

–

1

–

6.962

3.64

Pearson’s correlation coefficientd

1

1

0.996

Lin’s concordance coefficientd

0.339

0.616

0.956

  1. aFor cumulative reported cases, Rel-MSPE is defined relative to projections from the baseline model
  2. bFor cumulative reported cases, the correlation coefficients of the projections are compared with respect to observed data
  3. cFor cumulative reported deaths, Rel-MSPE is defined relative to projections from the eSIR model
  4. dFor cumulative reported deaths, the correlation coefficients of the projections are compared with respect to observed data
  5. eThe ICM model returns total (reported + unreported) cumulative case counts, so we leave it out of our comparisons
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BMC Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1471-2334

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