Fig. 2

Probabilities of transitioning to an endemic regime if the past month estimated regime was endemic and the corresponding probabilities of transitioning to an epidemic regime if the past month estimated regime was epidemic. Lines represent 95% credible intervals, points represent the posterior mean estimate of persistence probabilities across all provinces of Thailand. Red and blue lines which overlap denote crossing 95% credible intervals. Red and blue points which are closer to each other denote more similar epidemic and endemic persistence probabilties