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Table 3 The prediction effect of ARIMA and ARIMAX model in different regions

From: Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China

Region Month Actual incidence (1/100,000) ARIMA ARIMAX
Predicting incidence (95%CI) Relative error (%) Predicting incidence (95%CI) Relative error (%)
North China Jan 0.79 0.83(0.57–1.17) 5.06 0.82(0.57 ~ 1.20) 3.80
Feb 0.52 0.51(0.31–0.81) 1.92 0.52(0.33 ~ 0.69) 0.00
Mar 0.72 0.82(0.44–1.39) 13.89 0.79(0.34 ~ 1.32) 9.72
Apr 0.94 1.21(0.61–2.17) 28.72 1.18(0.43 ~ 2.07) 25.53
May 1.22 1.53(0.73–2.83) 25.41 1.40(0.67 ~ 2.62) 14.75
Jun 1.30 1.52(0.70–2.90) 16.92 1.48(0.68 ~ 2.85) 13.85
Jul 1.11 1.25(0.56–2.44) 12.61 1.20(0.43 ~ 2.38) 8.11
Aug 0.90 0.81(0.35–1.62) 10.00 0.80(0.44 ~ 1.78) 11.11
Sep 0.85 0.71(0.30–1.43) 16.47 0.73(0.45 ~ 1.67) 14.12
Oct 0.79 0.84(0.35–1.70) 6.33 0.81(0.23 ~ 1.63) 2.53
Nov 0.99 1.00(0.41–2.04) 11.11 1.00(0.40 ~ 2.27) 1.01
Dec 1.21 1.26(0.51–2.60) 4.13 1.19(0.51 ~ 2.52) 1.65
East China Jan 0.83 0.89(0.59–1.28) 7.23 0.85(0.61 ~ 1.25) 2.41
Feb 0.54 0.53(0.30–0.88) 1.85 0.48(0.32 ~ 0.74) 11.11
Mar 0.81 0.87(0.42–1.60) 7.41 0.74(0.35 ~ 1.66) 8.64
Apr 1.04 1.35(0.58–2.69) 29.81 1.07(0.61 ~ 2.01) 2.88
May 1.34 1.81(0.70–3.89) 35.07 1.45(0.57 ~ 2.58) 8.21
Jun 1.39 1.85(0.65–4.23) 33.09 1.49(0.62 ~ 2.98) 7.19
Jul 1.25 1.47(0.47–3.55) 17.60 1.10(0.43 ~ 2.57) 12.00
Aug 0.93 0.80(0.23–2.04) 13.98 1.02(0.24 ~ 1.47) 9.68
Sep 0.90 0.64(0.17–1.69) 28.89 0.85(0.21 ~ 1.45) 5.56
Oct 0.84 0.67(0.17–1.87) 20.24 0.70(0.18 ~ 1.59) 16.67
Nov 0.82 0.75(0.17–2.18) 8.54 0.79(0.19 ~ 1.54) 3.66
Dec 0.79 0.94(0.20–2.83) 18.99 0.83(0.22 ~ 1.98) 5.06
South China Jan 1.33 1.36(0.91–1.94) 2.26
Feb 0.78 0.79(0.57–1.40) 1.28
Mar 1.15 1.26(0.73–2.02) 9.57
Apr 1.40 1.50(0.82–2.53) 7.14
May 1.66 1.96(1.01–3.44) 18.07
Jun 2.17 1.93(0.95–3.52) 11.06
Jul 2.27 1.97(0.92–3.74) 13.22
Aug 1.61 1.50(0.67–2.94) 6.83
Sep 1.60 1.57(0.67–3.17) 1.88
Oct 1.79 1.60(0.65–3.33) 10.61
Nov 1.87 1.84(0.72–3.94) 1.60
Dec 2.01 1.66(0.62–3.65) 17.41
Central China Jan 1.83 1.86(1.21–2.75) 1.64 1.85(1.36 ~ 1.52) 1.09
Feb 1.03 1.07(0.64–1.70) 3.88 1.06(0.47 ~ 1.68) 2.91
Mar 1.15 1.19(0.88–2.67) 3.48 1.30(0.79 ~ 2.10) 13.04
Apr 1.58 2.01(1.33–4.56) 27.33 1.89(0.86 ~ 2.40) 19.62
May 2.20 2.58(1.65–6.28) 17.27 2.40(1.92 ~ 5.67) 9.09
Jun 2.46 3.56(1.62–6.85) 44.72 3.35(1.92 ~ 6.04) 36.18
Jul 2.37 2.83(1.22–5.66) 19.41 2.21(1.14 ~ 4.07) 6.75
Aug 1.48 1.48(0.61–3.06) 0.00 1.31(0.71 ~ 2.45) 11.49
Sep 1.26 1.12(0.44–2.40) 11.11 1.19(0.56 ~ 2.28) 5.56
Oct 1.62 1.43(0.53–3.16) 11.73 1.51(0.68 ~ 2.93) 6.79
Nov 2.22 1.71(0.60–3.89) 22.97 1.56(0.62 ~ 3.21) 29.73
Dec 3.30 2.11(0.71–4.92) 36.06 2.34(0.63 ~ 3.45) 29.09
South west Jan 1.17 1.26(0.77–1.99) 7.69 1.20(0.82 ~ 1.69) 2.56
Feb 0.59 0.70(0.40–1.14) 18.64 0.63(0.53 ~ 1.38) 6.78
Mar 1.06 0.96(0.51–1.67) 9.43 1.04(0.54 ~ 1.71) 1.89
Apr 1.41 1.60(0.79–2.89) 13.48 1.46(0.73 ~ 1.55) 3.55
May 1.89 2.20(1.05–4.09) 16.40 2.21(1.06 ~ 4.10) 16.93
Jun 1.95 2.43(1.13–4.62) 24.62 2.51(1.23 ~ 4.61) 28.72
Jul 1.69 1.84(0.84–3.55) 8.88 1.85(0.89 ~ 3.45) 9.47
Aug 1.18 1.07(0.48–2.08) 9.32 1.12(0.61 ~ 2.14) 5.08
Sep 1.28 1.00(0.44–1.96) 21.88 1.01(0.47 ~ 1.93) 21.09
Oct 1.55 1.18(0.52–2.33) 23.87 1.20(0.57 ~ 2.29) 22.58
Nov 1.57 1.36(0.59–2.68) 13.38 1.39(0.54 ~ 2.68) 11.46
Dec 1.58 1.29(0.56–2.56) 18.35 1.31(0.59 ~ 2.55) 17.09
North west Jan 1.59 1.55(1.00–2.29) 2.52 1.64(1.13 ~ 2.46) 3.14
Feb 0.89 0.90(0.49–1.52) 1.12 0.89(0.51 ~ 1.49) 0.00
Mar 1.17 1.26(0.62–2.39) 7.69 1.34(0.64 ~ 2.38) 14.53
Apr 1.45 1.76(0.77–3.45) 21.38 1.63(0.76 ~ 3.19) 12.41
May 1.84 2.16(0.89–4.46) 17.39 2.06(0.89 ~ 4.01) 11.96
Jun 1.93 2.13(0.82–4.56) 10.36 1.90(0.76 ~ 3.98) 1.55
Jul 1.53 1.71(0.63–3.78) 11.76 1.64(0.63 ~ 3.45) 7.19
Aug 1.28 1.06(0.38–2.40) 17.19 1.04(0.36 ~ 2.28) 18.75
Sep 1.31 1.01(0.35–2.33) 22.90 1.10(0.36 ~ 2.22) 16.03
Oct 1.41 1.30(0.43–3.05) 7.80 1.26(0.44 ~ 2.89) 10.64
Nov 2.26 1.70(0.55–4.05) 24.78 1.83(0.61 ~ 3.94) 19.03
Dec 2.29 1.85(0.59–4.47) 19.21 1.96(0.71 ~ 4.50) 14.41
North east Jan 0.44 0.37(0.25–0.52) 15.91 0.39(0.29 ~ 0.54) 11.36
Feb 0.29 0.18(0.10–0.30) 37.93 0.20(0.13 ~ 0.30) 31.03
Mar 0.49 0.26(0.13–0.46) 46.94 0.32(0.26 ~ 0.55) 34.69
Apr 0.49 0.34(0.15–0.65) 30.61 0.39(0.20 ~ 0.69) 20.41
May 0.72 0.47(0.19–0.97) 34.72 0.62(0.29 ~ 1.18) 13.89
Jun 0.70 0.47(0.17–1.04) 32.86 0.66(0.29 ~ 1.32) 5.71
Jul 0.53 0.35(0.12–0.81) 33.96 0.52(0.23 ~ 1.10) 1.89
Aug 0.43 0.22(0.07–0.55) 48.84 0.29(0.14 ~ 0.66) 32.56
Sep 0.46 0.23(0.07–0.61) 50.00 0.30(0.12 ~ 0.71) 34.78
Oct 0.40 0.24(0.06–0.64) 40.00 0.26(0.10 ~ 0.59) 35.00
Nov 0.44 0.33(0.08–0.93) 25.00 0.33(0.10 ~ 0.85) 25.00
Dec 0.46 0.39(0.09–1.12) 15.22 0.43(0.13 ~ 1.09) 6.52
  1. Note: There were no meteorological factors related to the incidence of mumps in south China
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