Table 3 The prediction effect of ARIMA and ARIMAX model in different regions
From: Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China
Region | Month | Actual incidence (1/100,000) | ARIMA | ARIMAX | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Predicting incidence (95%CI) | Relative error (%) | Predicting incidence (95%CI) | Relative error (%) | |||
North China | Jan | 0.79 | 0.83(0.57–1.17) | 5.06 | 0.82(0.57 ~ 1.20) | 3.80 |
Feb | 0.52 | 0.51(0.31–0.81) | 1.92 | 0.52(0.33 ~ 0.69) | 0.00 | |
Mar | 0.72 | 0.82(0.44–1.39) | 13.89 | 0.79(0.34 ~ 1.32) | 9.72 | |
Apr | 0.94 | 1.21(0.61–2.17) | 28.72 | 1.18(0.43 ~ 2.07) | 25.53 | |
May | 1.22 | 1.53(0.73–2.83) | 25.41 | 1.40(0.67 ~ 2.62) | 14.75 | |
Jun | 1.30 | 1.52(0.70–2.90) | 16.92 | 1.48(0.68 ~ 2.85) | 13.85 | |
Jul | 1.11 | 1.25(0.56–2.44) | 12.61 | 1.20(0.43 ~ 2.38) | 8.11 | |
Aug | 0.90 | 0.81(0.35–1.62) | 10.00 | 0.80(0.44 ~ 1.78) | 11.11 | |
Sep | 0.85 | 0.71(0.30–1.43) | 16.47 | 0.73(0.45 ~ 1.67) | 14.12 | |
Oct | 0.79 | 0.84(0.35–1.70) | 6.33 | 0.81(0.23 ~ 1.63) | 2.53 | |
Nov | 0.99 | 1.00(0.41–2.04) | 11.11 | 1.00(0.40 ~ 2.27) | 1.01 | |
Dec | 1.21 | 1.26(0.51–2.60) | 4.13 | 1.19(0.51 ~ 2.52) | 1.65 | |
East China | Jan | 0.83 | 0.89(0.59–1.28) | 7.23 | 0.85(0.61 ~ 1.25) | 2.41 |
Feb | 0.54 | 0.53(0.30–0.88) | 1.85 | 0.48(0.32 ~ 0.74) | 11.11 | |
Mar | 0.81 | 0.87(0.42–1.60) | 7.41 | 0.74(0.35 ~ 1.66) | 8.64 | |
Apr | 1.04 | 1.35(0.58–2.69) | 29.81 | 1.07(0.61 ~ 2.01) | 2.88 | |
May | 1.34 | 1.81(0.70–3.89) | 35.07 | 1.45(0.57 ~ 2.58) | 8.21 | |
Jun | 1.39 | 1.85(0.65–4.23) | 33.09 | 1.49(0.62 ~ 2.98) | 7.19 | |
Jul | 1.25 | 1.47(0.47–3.55) | 17.60 | 1.10(0.43 ~ 2.57) | 12.00 | |
Aug | 0.93 | 0.80(0.23–2.04) | 13.98 | 1.02(0.24 ~ 1.47) | 9.68 | |
Sep | 0.90 | 0.64(0.17–1.69) | 28.89 | 0.85(0.21 ~ 1.45) | 5.56 | |
Oct | 0.84 | 0.67(0.17–1.87) | 20.24 | 0.70(0.18 ~ 1.59) | 16.67 | |
Nov | 0.82 | 0.75(0.17–2.18) | 8.54 | 0.79(0.19 ~ 1.54) | 3.66 | |
Dec | 0.79 | 0.94(0.20–2.83) | 18.99 | 0.83(0.22 ~ 1.98) | 5.06 | |
South China | Jan | 1.33 | 1.36(0.91–1.94) | 2.26 | – | – |
Feb | 0.78 | 0.79(0.57–1.40) | 1.28 | – | – | |
Mar | 1.15 | 1.26(0.73–2.02) | 9.57 | – | – | |
Apr | 1.40 | 1.50(0.82–2.53) | 7.14 | – | – | |
May | 1.66 | 1.96(1.01–3.44) | 18.07 | – | – | |
Jun | 2.17 | 1.93(0.95–3.52) | 11.06 | – | – | |
Jul | 2.27 | 1.97(0.92–3.74) | 13.22 | – | – | |
Aug | 1.61 | 1.50(0.67–2.94) | 6.83 | – | – | |
Sep | 1.60 | 1.57(0.67–3.17) | 1.88 | – | – | |
Oct | 1.79 | 1.60(0.65–3.33) | 10.61 | – | – | |
Nov | 1.87 | 1.84(0.72–3.94) | 1.60 | – | – | |
Dec | 2.01 | 1.66(0.62–3.65) | 17.41 | – | – | |
Central China | Jan | 1.83 | 1.86(1.21–2.75) | 1.64 | 1.85(1.36 ~ 1.52) | 1.09 |
Feb | 1.03 | 1.07(0.64–1.70) | 3.88 | 1.06(0.47 ~ 1.68) | 2.91 | |
Mar | 1.15 | 1.19(0.88–2.67) | 3.48 | 1.30(0.79 ~ 2.10) | 13.04 | |
Apr | 1.58 | 2.01(1.33–4.56) | 27.33 | 1.89(0.86 ~ 2.40) | 19.62 | |
May | 2.20 | 2.58(1.65–6.28) | 17.27 | 2.40(1.92 ~ 5.67) | 9.09 | |
Jun | 2.46 | 3.56(1.62–6.85) | 44.72 | 3.35(1.92 ~ 6.04) | 36.18 | |
Jul | 2.37 | 2.83(1.22–5.66) | 19.41 | 2.21(1.14 ~ 4.07) | 6.75 | |
Aug | 1.48 | 1.48(0.61–3.06) | 0.00 | 1.31(0.71 ~ 2.45) | 11.49 | |
Sep | 1.26 | 1.12(0.44–2.40) | 11.11 | 1.19(0.56 ~ 2.28) | 5.56 | |
Oct | 1.62 | 1.43(0.53–3.16) | 11.73 | 1.51(0.68 ~ 2.93) | 6.79 | |
Nov | 2.22 | 1.71(0.60–3.89) | 22.97 | 1.56(0.62 ~ 3.21) | 29.73 | |
Dec | 3.30 | 2.11(0.71–4.92) | 36.06 | 2.34(0.63 ~ 3.45) | 29.09 | |
South west | Jan | 1.17 | 1.26(0.77–1.99) | 7.69 | 1.20(0.82 ~ 1.69) | 2.56 |
Feb | 0.59 | 0.70(0.40–1.14) | 18.64 | 0.63(0.53 ~ 1.38) | 6.78 | |
Mar | 1.06 | 0.96(0.51–1.67) | 9.43 | 1.04(0.54 ~ 1.71) | 1.89 | |
Apr | 1.41 | 1.60(0.79–2.89) | 13.48 | 1.46(0.73 ~ 1.55) | 3.55 | |
May | 1.89 | 2.20(1.05–4.09) | 16.40 | 2.21(1.06 ~ 4.10) | 16.93 | |
Jun | 1.95 | 2.43(1.13–4.62) | 24.62 | 2.51(1.23 ~ 4.61) | 28.72 | |
Jul | 1.69 | 1.84(0.84–3.55) | 8.88 | 1.85(0.89 ~ 3.45) | 9.47 | |
Aug | 1.18 | 1.07(0.48–2.08) | 9.32 | 1.12(0.61 ~ 2.14) | 5.08 | |
Sep | 1.28 | 1.00(0.44–1.96) | 21.88 | 1.01(0.47 ~ 1.93) | 21.09 | |
Oct | 1.55 | 1.18(0.52–2.33) | 23.87 | 1.20(0.57 ~ 2.29) | 22.58 | |
Nov | 1.57 | 1.36(0.59–2.68) | 13.38 | 1.39(0.54 ~ 2.68) | 11.46 | |
Dec | 1.58 | 1.29(0.56–2.56) | 18.35 | 1.31(0.59 ~ 2.55) | 17.09 | |
North west | Jan | 1.59 | 1.55(1.00–2.29) | 2.52 | 1.64(1.13 ~ 2.46) | 3.14 |
Feb | 0.89 | 0.90(0.49–1.52) | 1.12 | 0.89(0.51 ~ 1.49) | 0.00 | |
Mar | 1.17 | 1.26(0.62–2.39) | 7.69 | 1.34(0.64 ~ 2.38) | 14.53 | |
Apr | 1.45 | 1.76(0.77–3.45) | 21.38 | 1.63(0.76 ~ 3.19) | 12.41 | |
May | 1.84 | 2.16(0.89–4.46) | 17.39 | 2.06(0.89 ~ 4.01) | 11.96 | |
Jun | 1.93 | 2.13(0.82–4.56) | 10.36 | 1.90(0.76 ~ 3.98) | 1.55 | |
Jul | 1.53 | 1.71(0.63–3.78) | 11.76 | 1.64(0.63 ~ 3.45) | 7.19 | |
Aug | 1.28 | 1.06(0.38–2.40) | 17.19 | 1.04(0.36 ~ 2.28) | 18.75 | |
Sep | 1.31 | 1.01(0.35–2.33) | 22.90 | 1.10(0.36 ~ 2.22) | 16.03 | |
Oct | 1.41 | 1.30(0.43–3.05) | 7.80 | 1.26(0.44 ~ 2.89) | 10.64 | |
Nov | 2.26 | 1.70(0.55–4.05) | 24.78 | 1.83(0.61 ~ 3.94) | 19.03 | |
Dec | 2.29 | 1.85(0.59–4.47) | 19.21 | 1.96(0.71 ~ 4.50) | 14.41 | |
North east | Jan | 0.44 | 0.37(0.25–0.52) | 15.91 | 0.39(0.29 ~ 0.54) | 11.36 |
Feb | 0.29 | 0.18(0.10–0.30) | 37.93 | 0.20(0.13 ~ 0.30) | 31.03 | |
Mar | 0.49 | 0.26(0.13–0.46) | 46.94 | 0.32(0.26 ~ 0.55) | 34.69 | |
Apr | 0.49 | 0.34(0.15–0.65) | 30.61 | 0.39(0.20 ~ 0.69) | 20.41 | |
May | 0.72 | 0.47(0.19–0.97) | 34.72 | 0.62(0.29 ~ 1.18) | 13.89 | |
Jun | 0.70 | 0.47(0.17–1.04) | 32.86 | 0.66(0.29 ~ 1.32) | 5.71 | |
Jul | 0.53 | 0.35(0.12–0.81) | 33.96 | 0.52(0.23 ~ 1.10) | 1.89 | |
Aug | 0.43 | 0.22(0.07–0.55) | 48.84 | 0.29(0.14 ~ 0.66) | 32.56 | |
Sep | 0.46 | 0.23(0.07–0.61) | 50.00 | 0.30(0.12 ~ 0.71) | 34.78 | |
Oct | 0.40 | 0.24(0.06–0.64) | 40.00 | 0.26(0.10 ~ 0.59) | 35.00 | |
Nov | 0.44 | 0.33(0.08–0.93) | 25.00 | 0.33(0.10 ~ 0.85) | 25.00 | |
Dec | 0.46 | 0.39(0.09–1.12) | 15.22 | 0.43(0.13 ~ 1.09) | 6.52 | |