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Table 2 ECDC HIV modelling tool results, excluding and including CD4 count proxy from Denmark, Norway, 2018

From: Monitoring progress towards the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in key populations living with HIV in Norway

PopulationNumber of new HIV infections (95%CI)Median number of years from infection to diagnosis (interquartile range)Number of PLHIVa (95%CI)Number of undiagnosed HIV infections (95%CI)Proportion undiagnosed (95%CI)
Using default model assumptions for CD4 distribution
 Overall79 (34–129)2.2 (1.1–4.1)4964 (4789–5181)355 (259–449)7.1% (5.3–8.9)
 Norwegian-born MSM9 (5–25)1.7 (0.8–3.1)1245 (1163–1350)45 (30–75)3.6% (2.4–5.7)
 Migrant MSM21 (4–36)2.0 (1.0–3.7)495 (446–568)68 (39–111)13.7% (8.6–20.1)
 Norwegian-born heterosexuals19 (4–55)3.9 (1.9–7.0)864 (794–1009)134 (81–250)15.5% (10.2–24.8)
 Migrant SSA-born heterosexuals13 (5–27)1.3 (0.7–2.4)1544 (1451–1641)35 (21–55)2.3% (1.3–3.6)
 Migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals31 (4–52)3.3 (1.6–6.0)649 (558–737)123 (62–180)18.9% (10.7–25.3)
 PWID6 (1–22)3.1 (1.5–5.6)244 (185–308)20 (2–64)8.2% (0.8–21.7)
Using Danish CD4 proxy
 Overall86 (29–143)3.0 (1.5–5.7)5080 (4898–5262)520 (411–627)10.2% (8.3–12.1)
 Norwegian-born MSM13 (5–28)1.7 (0.9–3.2)1239 (1151–1351)52 (33–82)4.2% (2.6–6.2)
 Migrant MSM16 (4–35)2.0 (1.0–3.9)494 (445–558)64 (36–103)13.0% (8.4–19.0)
 Norwegian-born heterosexuals28 (5–62)3.5 (1.7–6.3)866 (799–1001)138 (91–238)16.0% (10.7–24.0)
 Migrant SSA-born heterosexuals28 (10–44)4.3 (1.9–8.1)1673 (1592–1788)162 (105–206)9.7% (6.4–12.3)
 Migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals41 (6–78)5.4 (2.7–9.6)711 (598–812)191 (95–268)26.8% (15.9–34.5)
 PWID12 (1–32)5.7 (2.7–10.0)257 (206–328)46 (12–92)17.9% (5.9–27.3)
  1. Overall: 5318 HIV diagnoses in the input data, 41% reported to be infected before migration to Norway; Norwegian-born MSM: 1332; migrant MSM: 465, 33%; Norwegian-born heterosexuals: 814; migrant SSA-born heterosexuals: 1625, 94%; migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals: 548, 78%; PWID: 414, 12%. We did not model all routes of transmission due to the low number of cases for which another known route of transmission was reported. Thus, the sum of the number of HIV diagnoses in the input data for the key subpopulations does not add up to the overall number of HIV diagnoses in the input data. See Additional file 1, Table A for a breakdown of the input data by region of birth, sex and route of transmission. Also, as estimates are done separately for each key subpopulation, the sum of the number of new infections or undiagnosed infections for the key subpopulations may differ from the corresponding estimates for the overall population. a Excludes diagnoses among persons previously diagnosed in another country who were not reported to have died or out-migrated by the end of 2018. MSM men who have sex with men, SSA Sub-Saharan Africa, PWID people who inject drugs, PLHIV people living with HIV