Table 2 ECDC HIV modelling tool results, excluding and including CD4 count proxy from Denmark, Norway, 2018
Population | Number of new HIV infections (95%CI) | Median number of years from infection to diagnosis (interquartile range) | Number of PLHIVa (95%CI) | Number of undiagnosed HIV infections (95%CI) | Proportion undiagnosed (95%CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Using default model assumptions for CD4 distribution | |||||
Overall | 79 (34–129) | 2.2 (1.1–4.1) | 4964 (4789–5181) | 355 (259–449) | 7.1% (5.3–8.9) |
Norwegian-born MSM | 9 (5–25) | 1.7 (0.8–3.1) | 1245 (1163–1350) | 45 (30–75) | 3.6% (2.4–5.7) |
Migrant MSM | 21 (4–36) | 2.0 (1.0–3.7) | 495 (446–568) | 68 (39–111) | 13.7% (8.6–20.1) |
Norwegian-born heterosexuals | 19 (4–55) | 3.9 (1.9–7.0) | 864 (794–1009) | 134 (81–250) | 15.5% (10.2–24.8) |
Migrant SSA-born heterosexuals | 13 (5–27) | 1.3 (0.7–2.4) | 1544 (1451–1641) | 35 (21–55) | 2.3% (1.3–3.6) |
Migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals | 31 (4–52) | 3.3 (1.6–6.0) | 649 (558–737) | 123 (62–180) | 18.9% (10.7–25.3) |
PWID | 6 (1–22) | 3.1 (1.5–5.6) | 244 (185–308) | 20 (2–64) | 8.2% (0.8–21.7) |
Using Danish CD4 proxy | |||||
Overall | 86 (29–143) | 3.0 (1.5–5.7) | 5080 (4898–5262) | 520 (411–627) | 10.2% (8.3–12.1) |
Norwegian-born MSM | 13 (5–28) | 1.7 (0.9–3.2) | 1239 (1151–1351) | 52 (33–82) | 4.2% (2.6–6.2) |
Migrant MSM | 16 (4–35) | 2.0 (1.0–3.9) | 494 (445–558) | 64 (36–103) | 13.0% (8.4–19.0) |
Norwegian-born heterosexuals | 28 (5–62) | 3.5 (1.7–6.3) | 866 (799–1001) | 138 (91–238) | 16.0% (10.7–24.0) |
Migrant SSA-born heterosexuals | 28 (10–44) | 4.3 (1.9–8.1) | 1673 (1592–1788) | 162 (105–206) | 9.7% (6.4–12.3) |
Migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals | 41 (6–78) | 5.4 (2.7–9.6) | 711 (598–812) | 191 (95–268) | 26.8% (15.9–34.5) |
PWID | 12 (1–32) | 5.7 (2.7–10.0) | 257 (206–328) | 46 (12–92) | 17.9% (5.9–27.3) |