Fig. 3

The quadratic trend between TB notification rate and time in Sichuan province from 2006 to 2015. The solid line is the fitted value using parametric spatio-temporal interactions model II: io\( \log \left({\mu}_{it}\right)={\mu}_0+\log \left({E}_{it}\right)+{\mu}_i+{\nu}_i+{\beta}_1{X}_t+{\beta}_2{X}_t^2+{\delta}_{it} \) and the dotted line is the 95% credible interval for the posteriori distribution