Table 2 Posterior estimates and their 95% credible intervals (CI) for the random effects models

 (Intercept)

0.91 (0.73, 1.13)

0.74 (0.60, 0.91)*

0.74 (0.61, 0.90)*

 Year

0.94 (0.92, 0.97)*

–

–

  Structured  (τ_υ)

4.64e⁰² (1.37e⁰¹, 3.95e⁰³)

4.34e⁰² (1.33e⁰¹, 3.75e⁰³)

3.29e⁰³ (6.66e⁰², 1.09e⁰⁴)

  Unstructured  (τ_ν)

1.96 (1.27, 2.89)

1.95 (1.27, 2.90)

2.24 (1.44, 3.31)

  Structured  (τ_γ)

–

2.07e⁰² (6.68e⁰¹, 5.28e⁰²)

1.02e⁰⁴ (7.23e⁰², 5.91e⁰⁴)

  Unstructured  (τ_ϕ)

–

1.21e⁰⁴ (9.45e⁰², 6.51e⁰⁴)

5.65e⁰² (1.48e⁰², 2.08e⁰³)

  Interaction  (τ_δ)

3.48e⁰³ (1.05e⁰³, 9.48e⁰³)

–

6.64e⁰¹ (5.40 e⁰¹, 8.15e⁰¹)

 DIC

5163.47

5163.31

3100.82

 pD

55.40

55.40

268.34

 Md (Ď)

5108.07

5107.91

2832.49