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Table 4 Comparison of the four models

From: Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

model RMSE MAPE
Training set Testing set Training set Testing set
Multivariate BP 2125.68 2653.73 16.59 18.57
Univariate BP 3055.32 2981.11 20.46 28.55
ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 + ×7a 3313.60 4476.06 26.11 36.43
ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 3377.48 4476.39 28.02 36.67
  1. a×7 means one order lagged mean temperature