BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 4 Comparison of the four models

From: Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

model	RMSE		MAPE
model	Training set	Testing set	Training set	Testing set
Multivariate BP	2125.68	2653.73	16.59	18.57
Univariate BP	3055.32	2981.11	20.46	28.55
ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)¹² + ×7^a	3313.60	4476.06	26.11	36.43
ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)¹²	3377.48	4476.39	28.02	36.67

^a×7 means one order lagged mean temperature

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ISSN: 1471-2334

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