Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 3 Selection of the multivariate ARIMAX model

Model	AIC	BIC	Ljung-Box test
Model	AIC	BIC	Q^a	p
ARIMA+×5	1134.05	1144.43	10.679	0.4005
ARIMA+×6	1134.08	1144.47	10.274	0.4347
ARIMA+×7	1132.37	1142.76	10.982	0.3759
ARIMA+×8	1134.07	1144.45	10.272	0.4348
ARIMA+×5 + × 6	1135.97	1148.43	10.903	0.2985
ARIMA+×5 + × 7	1134.01	1146.47	10.406	0.3357
ARIMA+×5 + × 8	1135.97	1148.43	10.85	0.3023
ARIMA+×6 + ×7	1134.21	1146.68	11.149	0.2811
ARIMA+×6 + ×8	1136.06	1148.52	10.28	0.3456
ARIMA+×7 + ×8	1134.00	1146.46	11.144	0.2815
ARIMA+×5 + ×6 + ×7	1135.93	1150.48	10.502	0.2468
ARIMA+×5 + ×7 + ×8	1135.62	1150.16	10.325	0.2587
ARIMA+×5 + ×6 + ×8	1137.94	1152.49	10.926	0.2201
ARIMA+×6 + ×7 + ×8	1135.99	1150.53	11.157	0.2066
ARIMA+×5 + ×6 + ×7 + ×8	1137.61	1154.23	10.294	0.1861

ISSN: 1471-2334