Fig. 4

BPaMZ treatment outcomes in different scenarios of local RR prevalence and rifampin DST (Xpert) coverage. “High Xpert” coverage reaches 70% of new and 75% of previously-treated patients, and “Low Xpert” coverage reaches 10% of new and 37.5% of retreatment patients. “Low RIF-R” prevalence is RR in 3.4% of new and 7.1% of previously-treated TB (3.8% overall), and “High RIF-R” prevalence increases the odds of RR-TB three-fold, to RR prevalence of 9.6% of new and 18.7% of retreatment patients (10.5% overall). The lower left panel thus represents the base model of present-day South Africa. Error bars show the standard deviation over repeated simulations of each scenario with cohorts of 100,000 patients in each setting