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Table 6 Results of sensitivity analyses

From: Performance of prediction rules and guidelines in detecting serious bacterial infections among Tanzanian febrile children

Prediction rule/guideline n/N %test positive % sensitivity (95% CI) % specificity (95% CI) Likelihood ratio (95% CI)
positive negative
Derivation age-group only
 Bleeker 88/507 46.5% 72.7 (62.2–81.7) 58.9 (54.1–63.7) 1.77 (1.49–2.10) 0.46 (0.33–0.66)
 Thayyil 124/777 5.4% 11.3 (6.3–18.2) 95.7 (93.9–97.1) 2.63 (1.43–4.86) 0.93 (0.87–0.99)
 Lab Score 88/507 54.2% 58.0 (47.0–68.4) 46.5 (41.7–51.4) 1.08 (0.89–1.32) 0.90 (0.69–1.18)
 Rotterdam fever model
  2.5% risk 161/985 66.50% 77.6 (70.4–83.8) 35.7 (32.4–39.1) 1.21 (1.10–1.33) 0.63 (0.46–0.85)
  5% risk 161/985 55.53% 70.2 (62.5–77.1) 47.3 (43.9–50.8) 1.33 (1.18–1.50) 0.63 (0.49–0.81)
  15% risk 161/985 36.24% 49.7 (41.7–57.7) 66.4 (63.0–69.6) 1.48 (1.23–1.77) 0.76 (0.65–0.89)
 IMCI 154/941 26.1% 31.8 (24.6–39.8) 70.0 (71.8–78.0) 1.27 (0.98–1.65) 0.91 (0.81–1.02)
 iCCM 154/941 25.8% 31.8 (24.6–39.8) 75.3 (72.2–78.3) 1.29 (0.99–1.68) 0.90 (0.81–1.02)
 ALMANACH 154/941 40.5% 64.9 (56.8–72.4) 64.3 (60.8–67.6) 1.82 (1.57–2.11) 0.55 (0.44–0.68)
 NICE 154/941 74.4% 82.5 (75.5–88.1) 27.2 (24.1–30.4) 1.13 (1.04–1.23) 0.64 (0.45–0.93)
 AAEP 122/756 22.5% 58.2 (48.9–67.1) 84.4 (81.3–87.1) 3.73 (2.95–4.72) 0.50 (0.40–0.61)
Patients without pneumonia only
 IMCI 133/974 28.7% 21.8 (15.1–29.8) 70.2 (66.9–73.2) 0.73 (0.52–1.02) 1.11 (1.01–1.23)
 iCCM 133/974 28.4% 21.8 (15.1–29.8) 70.5 (67.3–73.6) 0.74 (0.53–1.04) 1.11 (1.00–1.23)
 ALMANACH 133/974 43.5% 66.9 (58.2–74.8) 60.2 (56.8–63.5) 1.68 (1.45–1.94) 0.55 (0.43–0.70)
 AAEP 133/841 39.9% 62.4 (53.6–70.7) 63.6 (60.3–66.9) 1.72 (1.46–2.01) 0.59 (0.47–0.74)
Patients without UTI only
 Bleeker 67/672 60.2% 70.1 (57.7–80.7) 40.8 (36.9–44.9) 1.19 (1.00–1.40) 0.73 (0.50–1.07)
 Lab Score 67/672 67.9% 68.7 (56.2–79.4) 32.2 (28.5–36.1) 1.01 (0.85–1.20) 0.97(0.67–1.41)
 ALMANACH 107/946 31.8% 48.6 (38.8–58.5) 70.3 (67.1–73.4) 1.64 (1.31–2.04) 0.73 (0.60–0.88)
 AAEP 107/946 39.4% 62.6 (52.7–71.8) 63.5 (60.2–66.8) 1.72 (1.45–2.04) 0.59 (0.46–0.76)
Patients with negative malaria test only
 Bleeker 119/643 60.4% 79.8 (71.5–86.6) 43.9 (39.6–48.3) 1.42 (1.26–1.60) 0.46 (0.32–0.67)
 Thayyil 153/897 24.0% 31.4 (24.1–39.4) 77.6 (74.4–80.5) 1.40 (1.07–1.83) 0.88 (0.79–0.99)
 Lab Score 119/642 65.4% 68.9 (59.8–77.1) 35.4 (31.3–39.6) 1.07 (0.93–1.22) 0.88 (0.66–1.18)
 Rotterdam fever model
  2.5% risk 152/881 62.9% 76.3 (68.7–82.8) 39.9 (36.3–43.6) 1.27 (1.14–1.41) 0.59 (0.44–0.80)
  5% risk 152/881 51.1% 68.4 (60.4–75.7) 52.5 (48.8–56.2) 1.44 (1.26–1.65) 0.60 (0.47–0.77)
  15% risk 152/881 32.1% 48.0 (39.9–56.3) 71.2 (67.8–74.5) 1.67 (1.36–2.04) 0.73 (0.62–0.86)
Patients with fever without source only for scores that were derived in children with fever without source
 Bleeker 73/315 69.8% 80.8 (69.9–89.1) 33.5 (27.6–39.8) 1.21 (1.05–1.40) 0.57 (0.35–0.95)
 Thayyil 77/367 30.8% 27.3 (17.7–38.6) 68.3 (62.6–73.6) 0.86 (0.58–1.28) 1.07 (0.91–1.25)
 Lab Score 73/314 72.2% 71.2 (59.4–81.2) 27.4 (21.9–33.5) 0.98 (0.83–1.16) 1.05 (0.69–1.59)