Table 6 Results of sensitivity analyses
Prediction rule/guideline | n/N | %test positive | % sensitivity (95% CI) | % specificity (95% CI) | Likelihood ratio (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
positive | negative | |||||
Derivation age-group only | ||||||
Bleeker | 88/507 | 46.5% | 72.7 (62.2–81.7) | 58.9 (54.1–63.7) | 1.77 (1.49–2.10) | 0.46 (0.33–0.66) |
Thayyil | 124/777 | 5.4% | 11.3 (6.3–18.2) | 95.7 (93.9–97.1) | 2.63 (1.43–4.86) | 0.93 (0.87–0.99) |
Lab Score | 88/507 | 54.2% | 58.0 (47.0–68.4) | 46.5 (41.7–51.4) | 1.08 (0.89–1.32) | 0.90 (0.69–1.18) |
Rotterdam fever model | ||||||
2.5% risk | 161/985 | 66.50% | 77.6 (70.4–83.8) | 35.7 (32.4–39.1) | 1.21 (1.10–1.33) | 0.63 (0.46–0.85) |
5% risk | 161/985 | 55.53% | 70.2 (62.5–77.1) | 47.3 (43.9–50.8) | 1.33 (1.18–1.50) | 0.63 (0.49–0.81) |
15% risk | 161/985 | 36.24% | 49.7 (41.7–57.7) | 66.4 (63.0–69.6) | 1.48 (1.23–1.77) | 0.76 (0.65–0.89) |
IMCI | 154/941 | 26.1% | 31.8 (24.6–39.8) | 70.0 (71.8–78.0) | 1.27 (0.98–1.65) | 0.91 (0.81–1.02) |
iCCM | 154/941 | 25.8% | 31.8 (24.6–39.8) | 75.3 (72.2–78.3) | 1.29 (0.99–1.68) | 0.90 (0.81–1.02) |
ALMANACH | 154/941 | 40.5% | 64.9 (56.8–72.4) | 64.3 (60.8–67.6) | 1.82 (1.57–2.11) | 0.55 (0.44–0.68) |
NICE | 154/941 | 74.4% | 82.5 (75.5–88.1) | 27.2 (24.1–30.4) | 1.13 (1.04–1.23) | 0.64 (0.45–0.93) |
AAEP | 122/756 | 22.5% | 58.2 (48.9–67.1) | 84.4 (81.3–87.1) | 3.73 (2.95–4.72) | 0.50 (0.40–0.61) |
Patients without pneumonia only | ||||||
IMCI | 133/974 | 28.7% | 21.8 (15.1–29.8) | 70.2 (66.9–73.2) | 0.73 (0.52–1.02) | 1.11 (1.01–1.23) |
iCCM | 133/974 | 28.4% | 21.8 (15.1–29.8) | 70.5 (67.3–73.6) | 0.74 (0.53–1.04) | 1.11 (1.00–1.23) |
ALMANACH | 133/974 | 43.5% | 66.9 (58.2–74.8) | 60.2 (56.8–63.5) | 1.68 (1.45–1.94) | 0.55 (0.43–0.70) |
AAEP | 133/841 | 39.9% | 62.4 (53.6–70.7) | 63.6 (60.3–66.9) | 1.72 (1.46–2.01) | 0.59 (0.47–0.74) |
Patients without UTI only | ||||||
Bleeker | 67/672 | 60.2% | 70.1 (57.7–80.7) | 40.8 (36.9–44.9) | 1.19 (1.00–1.40) | 0.73 (0.50–1.07) |
Lab Score | 67/672 | 67.9% | 68.7 (56.2–79.4) | 32.2 (28.5–36.1) | 1.01 (0.85–1.20) | 0.97(0.67–1.41) |
ALMANACH | 107/946 | 31.8% | 48.6 (38.8–58.5) | 70.3 (67.1–73.4) | 1.64 (1.31–2.04) | 0.73 (0.60–0.88) |
AAEP | 107/946 | 39.4% | 62.6 (52.7–71.8) | 63.5 (60.2–66.8) | 1.72 (1.45–2.04) | 0.59 (0.46–0.76) |
Patients with negative malaria test only | ||||||
Bleeker | 119/643 | 60.4% | 79.8 (71.5–86.6) | 43.9 (39.6–48.3) | 1.42 (1.26–1.60) | 0.46 (0.32–0.67) |
Thayyil | 153/897 | 24.0% | 31.4 (24.1–39.4) | 77.6 (74.4–80.5) | 1.40 (1.07–1.83) | 0.88 (0.79–0.99) |
Lab Score | 119/642 | 65.4% | 68.9 (59.8–77.1) | 35.4 (31.3–39.6) | 1.07 (0.93–1.22) | 0.88 (0.66–1.18) |
Rotterdam fever model | ||||||
2.5% risk | 152/881 | 62.9% | 76.3 (68.7–82.8) | 39.9 (36.3–43.6) | 1.27 (1.14–1.41) | 0.59 (0.44–0.80) |
5% risk | 152/881 | 51.1% | 68.4 (60.4–75.7) | 52.5 (48.8–56.2) | 1.44 (1.26–1.65) | 0.60 (0.47–0.77) |
15% risk | 152/881 | 32.1% | 48.0 (39.9–56.3) | 71.2 (67.8–74.5) | 1.67 (1.36–2.04) | 0.73 (0.62–0.86) |
Patients with fever without source only for scores that were derived in children with fever without source | ||||||
Bleeker | 73/315 | 69.8% | 80.8 (69.9–89.1) | 33.5 (27.6–39.8) | 1.21 (1.05–1.40) | 0.57 (0.35–0.95) |
Thayyil | 77/367 | 30.8% | 27.3 (17.7–38.6) | 68.3 (62.6–73.6) | 0.86 (0.58–1.28) | 1.07 (0.91–1.25) |
Lab Score | 73/314 | 72.2% | 71.2 (59.4–81.2) | 27.4 (21.9–33.5) | 0.98 (0.83–1.16) | 1.05 (0.69–1.59) |