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Table 4 Base-case scenario and sensitivity analysis results

From: The impact of childhood varicella vaccination on the incidence of herpes zoster in the general population: modelling the effect of exogenous and endogenous varicella-zoster virus immunity boosting

HZ incidence parameters Exogenous-Endogenous (%)
100–0 75–25 50–50 25–75 0–100
2-year immunity to HZ scenario
 Decrease in HZ by year 80 (%) 63.6 63.8 64.0 64.2 64.4
 Number of years with HZ increase above pre-vaccine rate 3 3 2 1 0
 Max HZ increase (%) above pre-vaccine rate 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
 Year at max HZ increase 3 3 2 2 NA
10-year immunity to HZ scenario (base case)
 Decrease in HZ by year 80 (%) 62.1 63.1 64.0 64.8 65.6
 Number of years with HZ increase above pre-vaccine rate 21 10 3 2 0
 Max HZ increase (%) above pre-vaccine rate 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
 Year at max HZ increase 9 4 3 2 NA
20-year immunity to HZ scenario
 Decrease in HZ by year 80 (%) 60.1 61.8 63.3 64.7 66.0
 Number of years with HZ increase above pre-vaccine rate 33 23 9 3 1
 Max HZ increase (%) above pre-vaccine rate 5.7 2.6 1.0 0.9 0.8
 Year at max HZ increase 19 9 1 1 1
  1. HZ herpes zoster, NA not available