Table 2 Base-case and sensitivity analyses

Base case analysis

Vaccination coverage of MMR dose 1 and 2

Dose 1: 90%; Dose 2: 80%

Time for replacement (MMR by MMRV)

3 years

Catch-up program

No catch-up

Exogenous/endogenous boosting

Included and relative weighting depends on scenario

Contact matrix

Empirical

Vaccine protection

Post-dose 1: 17 years; Post-dose 2: lifelong protection

Sensitivity analysis

Waning natural immunity (average duration 10 years – base case) changed to 2 and 20 years

bc: δ = 0.1

Low: δ = 0.05

High: δ = 0.5

 0–4 years

0.028

 5–9 years

0.009

 10–14 years

0.0068

 15–24 years

0.0035

 25–44 years

0.0033

 45–64 years

0.008

 ≥65+ years

0.016

 0–4 years

0.00769

 5–9 years

0.00339

 10–14 years

0.00326

 15–24 years

0.00227

 25–44 years

0.00256

 45–64 years

0.00646

 ≥65+ years

0.01387

 0–4 years

0.05478

 5–9 years

0.01666

 10–14 years

0.01183

 15–24 years

0.00548

 25–44 years

0.00453

 45–64 years

0.01035

 ≥65+ years

0.01991