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Table 2 Base-case and sensitivity analyses

From: The impact of childhood varicella vaccination on the incidence of herpes zoster in the general population: modelling the effect of exogenous and endogenous varicella-zoster virus immunity boosting

  Description French coverage
Base case analysis Vaccination coverage of MMR dose 1 and 2 Dose 1: 90%; Dose 2: 80%
Time for replacement (MMR by MMRV) 3 years
Catch-up program No catch-up
Exogenous/endogenous boosting Included and relative weighting depends on scenario
Contact matrix Empirical
Vaccine protection Post-dose 1: 17 years; Post-dose 2: lifelong protection
Sensitivity analysis Waning natural immunity (average duration 10 years – base case) changed to 2 and 20 years bc: δ = 0.1 Low: δ = 0.05 High: δ = 0.5
Reactivation rate of infectious zoster, by age group for δ = 0.1
 0–4 years 0.028
 5–9 years 0.009
 10–14 years 0.0068
 15–24 years 0.0035
 25–44 years 0.0033
 45–64 years 0.008
 ≥65+ years 0.016
Reactivation rate of infectious zoster, by age group for δ = 0.5
 0–4 years 0.00769
 5–9 years 0.00339
 10–14 years 0.00326
 15–24 years 0.00227
 25–44 years 0.00256
 45–64 years 0.00646
 ≥65+ years 0.01387
Reactivation rate of infectious zoster, by age group for δ = 0.05
 0–4 years 0.05478
 5–9 years 0.01666
 10–14 years 0.01183
 15–24 years 0.00548
 25–44 years 0.00453
 45–64 years 0.01035
 ≥65+ years 0.01991
  1. δ, waning natural immunity (average duration 10 years), bc base case (scenario), MMR measles, mumps, and rubella, MMRV measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella