Table 1 Model parameter values for high-risk adults aged 18–64 years
Parameter | Base case | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Probabilities | % | % | |
Vaccination probability with no program | |||
Influenza | 52.1 | 26.4–85.7 | 4 Pillars™ |
Tdap | 37.9 | 4.2–85.7 | 4 Pillars™ |
Pneumococcal vaccines | 43.4 | 16.7–61.9 | 4 Pillars™ |
Absolute increase in vaccine uptake with program | |||
Influenza | 4.7 | 0–15.2 | 4 Pillars™ |
Tdap | 11.5 | 0–27.3 | 4 Pillars™ |
Pneumococcal vaccines | 12.3 | 4.1–28.6 | 4 Pillars™ |
Vaccine effectiveness | |||
Influenza | 59.0 | 20–67 | [28] |
Tdap (10 year average) | 24.5 | 0–95 | [29] |
Pneumococcal vaccines (10 year average a) | |||
PPSV alone (pts with comorbid conditions) Against IPD | 46.5 | 22–72 | |
Against NBP | 0 | – | |
PPSV and PCV13 (immunocompromised pts) Against IPD | 36.3 | 19–56 | |
Against NBP | 25.8 | 14–40 | |
Pneumococcal illness serotype prevalence | |||
PCV13 serotypes | 30.7 | 6.8–63 | [16] |
PPSV serotypes | 67.6 | 51–82 | [16] |
Relative likelihood of immunocompromised given high-risk | 10.7% | 5–15% | [1] |
Probability of illness without vaccinations (yearly) | |||
Influenza | 6.6 | 3.2–10 | [12] |
Pertussis | 0.202 | 0.101–0.303 | [15] |
IPD (pts with comorbid conditions) | 0.012 | 0.006–0.018 | [13] |
IPD (immunocompromised pts) | 0.074 | 0.037–0.111 | [13] |
NBP (pts with comorbid conditions) | 1.44 | 0.72–2.16 | [13] |
NBP (immunocompromised pts) | 9.05 | 4.5–13.58 | [13] |
Relative likelihood of outpatient treatment (vs. inpatient) | 90.07 | 76–98 | [13] |
IPD disability | 6.02 | 4–8 | [13] |
IPD mortality | 15.9 | 13.8–35.2 | [13] |
NBP disability | 3 | 2–4 | Estimate |
NBP mortality | 6.3 | 5.3–14.3 | [13] |
Case-hospitalization, influenza | 1.93 | 0.65–3.21 | [12] |
Case-mortality, influenza | 0.134 | 0.04–.224 | [12] |
Outpatient influenza | 62.5 | 38.9–86.1 | [12] |
Pertussis severity relative likelihood | |||
Mild | 11 | 5–17 | [14] |
Relative likelihood of treatment (vs. no treatment) | 37.2 | 20–55 | [14] |
Moderate | 86 | 75–90 | [14] |
Severe (hospitalized) | 3 | 0–6 | [14] |
Encephalopathy, given severe | 1.43 | 0–3 | [14] |
Mortality, given severe | 0.86 | 0–2 | [14] |
Costs (base year 2015) | US$ | US$ | |
Vaccines | |||
Influenza | 10.69 | 6.64–32.75 | [30] |
Tdap | 37.55 | 20.18–42.61 | [30] |
PPSV | 78.90 | 26.60–130 | [30] |
PCV13 | 159.60 | 96.1–220 | [30] |
Vaccine administration, per vaccine | 25.08 | 20–30 | [31] |
Implementation program, per eligible person | 1.78 | 0.70–2.26 | 4 Pillars™ |
Mild pertussis, when treated | |||
Third-party payer perspective | 305 | 153–457 | [17] |
Societal perspective | 882 | 441–1323 | [17] |
Moderate pertussis | |||
Third-party payer perspective | 424 | 212–636 | [17] |
Societal perspective | 1001 | 501–1502 | [17] |
Severe pertussis | |||
Third-party payer perspective | 7850 | 3925–11,775 | [14] |
Societal perspective | 8261 | 4130–12,391 | [14] |
Influenza (outpatient) | 944 | 472–1416 | [12] |
Hospitalized influenza | 53,212 | 26,606–79,818 | [12] |
Pneumococcal disease | |||
Invasive pneumococcal disease | 30,745 | 15,373–46,118 | [13] |
Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (hospitalized) | 17,466 | 8733–26,199 | [13] |
Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (outpatient) | 571 | 286–857 | [13] |
Disability | 32,987 | 16,494–49,481 | [13] |
Cost of death | 153,085 | 76,543–229,628 | [12] |
Cost of lost productivity | 671,226 | 335,613–1,006,839 | [12] |
Cost of lost day of productivity | 187 | 158–223 | [12] |
Utilities | |||
Influenza | |||
Outpatient | 0.558 | 0.3–0.8 | [17] |
Hospitalized | 0.2 | 0.1–0.4 | Estimate |
Pertussis | |||
Mild | 0.9 | 0.8–0.99 | [14] |
Moderate | 0.85 | 0.75–0.95 | [14] |
Severe | 0.81 | 0.6–0.9 | [14] |
Encephalopathy | 0.2 | 0–0.4 | [14] |
Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia | |||
Inpatient | 0.2 | 0–0.5 | Estimate [32] |
Outpatient | 0.9 | 0.7–1 | Estimate |
Invasive pneumococcal disease | 0.2 | 0–0.5 | [32] |
Disability post pneumococcal disease | 0.4 | 0.2–0.6 | Estimate [33] |
Disutilities (quality adjusted life years lost) | QALY | QALY | |
Illness death (discounted) | 10.25 | 5–15 | [18] |
Durations (days lost due to illness) Illness duration (days) | |||
Influenza | Days | Days | |
Outpatient | 4 | 1–8 | [12] |
Hospitalized | 24 | 15–35 | [12] |
Pertussis | 87 | 68–107 | [14] |
Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia | |||
Inpatient | 27 | 18–38 | [34] |
Outpatient | 18 | 11–26 | [34] |
Invasive pneumococcal disease | 27 | 18–38 | [34] |