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Table 1 Model parameter values for high-risk adults aged 18–64 years

From: Cost-effectiveness of increasing vaccination in high-risk adults aged 18–64 Years: a model-based decision analysis

Parameter Base case Range Source
Probabilities % %  
Vaccination probability with no program
 Influenza 52.1 26.4–85.7 4 Pillars™
 Tdap 37.9 4.2–85.7 4 Pillars™
 Pneumococcal vaccines 43.4 16.7–61.9 4 Pillars™
Absolute increase in vaccine uptake with program
 Influenza 4.7 0–15.2 4 Pillars™
 Tdap 11.5 0–27.3 4 Pillars™
 Pneumococcal vaccines 12.3 4.1–28.6 4 Pillars™
Vaccine effectiveness
 Influenza 59.0 20–67 [28]
 Tdap (10 year average) 24.5 0–95 [29]
 Pneumococcal vaccines (10 year average a)    Calculated [10, 11]
 PPSV alone (pts with comorbid conditions)
 Against IPD
46.5 22–72  
 Against NBP 0
 PPSV and PCV13 (immunocompromised pts)
 Against IPD
36.3 19–56
 Against NBP 25.8 14–40
Pneumococcal illness serotype prevalence
 PCV13 serotypes 30.7 6.8–63 [16]
 PPSV serotypes 67.6 51–82 [16]
 Relative likelihood of immunocompromised given high-risk 10.7% 5–15% [1]
Probability of illness without vaccinations (yearly)
 Influenza 6.6 3.2–10 [12]
 Pertussis 0.202 0.101–0.303 [15]
 IPD (pts with comorbid conditions) 0.012 0.006–0.018 [13]
 IPD (immunocompromised pts) 0.074 0.037–0.111 [13]
 NBP (pts with comorbid conditions) 1.44 0.72–2.16 [13]
 NBP (immunocompromised pts) 9.05 4.5–13.58 [13]
 Relative likelihood of outpatient treatment (vs. inpatient) 90.07 76–98 [13]
 IPD disability 6.02 4–8 [13]
 IPD mortality 15.9 13.8–35.2 [13]
 NBP disability 3 2–4 Estimate
 NBP mortality 6.3 5.3–14.3 [13]
Case-hospitalization, influenza 1.93 0.65–3.21 [12]
Case-mortality, influenza 0.134 0.04–.224 [12]
Outpatient influenza 62.5 38.9–86.1 [12]
Pertussis severity relative likelihood
 Mild 11 5–17 [14]
 Relative likelihood of treatment (vs. no treatment) 37.2 20–55 [14]
 Moderate 86 75–90 [14]
 Severe (hospitalized) 3 0–6 [14]
 Encephalopathy, given severe 1.43 0–3 [14]
 Mortality, given severe 0.86 0–2 [14]
Costs (base year 2015) US$ US$  
Vaccines
 Influenza 10.69 6.64–32.75 [30]
 Tdap 37.55 20.18–42.61 [30]
 PPSV 78.90 26.60–130 [30]
 PCV13 159.60 96.1–220 [30]
Vaccine administration, per vaccine 25.08 20–30 [31]
Implementation program, per eligible person 1.78 0.70–2.26 4 Pillars™
Mild pertussis, when treated
 Third-party payer perspective 305 153–457 [17]
 Societal perspective 882 441–1323 [17]
Moderate pertussis
 Third-party payer perspective 424 212–636 [17]
 Societal perspective 1001 501–1502 [17]
Severe pertussis
 Third-party payer perspective 7850 3925–11,775 [14]
 Societal perspective 8261 4130–12,391 [14]
Influenza (outpatient) 944 472–1416 [12]
Hospitalized influenza 53,212 26,606–79,818 [12]
Pneumococcal disease
 Invasive pneumococcal disease 30,745 15,373–46,118 [13]
 Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (hospitalized) 17,466 8733–26,199 [13]
 Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (outpatient) 571 286–857 [13]
 Disability 32,987 16,494–49,481 [13]
Cost of death 153,085 76,543–229,628 [12]
Cost of lost productivity 671,226 335,613–1,006,839 [12]
Cost of lost day of productivity 187 158–223 [12]
Utilities
 Influenza    
  Outpatient 0.558 0.3–0.8 [17]
  Hospitalized 0.2 0.1–0.4 Estimate
 Pertussis
  Mild 0.9 0.8–0.99 [14]
  Moderate 0.85 0.75–0.95 [14]
  Severe 0.81 0.6–0.9 [14]
  Encephalopathy 0.2 0–0.4 [14]
 Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia
  Inpatient 0.2 0–0.5 Estimate [32]
  Outpatient 0.9 0.7–1 Estimate
  Invasive pneumococcal disease 0.2 0–0.5 [32]
  Disability post pneumococcal disease 0.4 0.2–0.6 Estimate [33]
Disutilities (quality adjusted life years lost) QALY QALY  
 Illness death (discounted) 10.25 5–15 [18]
Durations (days lost due to illness)
Illness duration (days)
 Influenza Days Days  
  Outpatient 4 1–8 [12]
  Hospitalized 24 15–35 [12]
 Pertussis 87 68–107 [14]
 Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia    
  Inpatient 27 18–38 [34]
  Outpatient 18 11–26 [34]
 Invasive pneumococcal disease 27 18–38 [34]
  1. Tdap Tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis vaccine, IPD Invasive pneumococcal disease, NBP Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, PCV13 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, PPSV Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine
  2. a Versus vaccine serotype